There are two schools of thought on the Chinese economy right now. The first says “It’s always darkest just before the dawn.” The second says “It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.” It’s clear that China’s economy is slowing. But what happens next is far from clear, and […]
I was on BBC Monday, talking about the latest trade spats developing between the U.S. and China. Over the past few weeks, the U.S. imposed two distinct sets of retaliatory tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels (and just today, followed up with similar sanctions on Chinese-made wind-turbine towers). Last Friday, China […]
Early last week, I went on Bloomberg to talk about China’s latest economic figures, and boy did I kick up a hornet’s nest. In a nutshell, I said that I was finding it harder and harder to reconcile China’s official CPI, GDP, and PMI numbers with what I was seeing […]
[credit provider=”Bloomberg” url=”http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2012-04-08/china-may-be-experiencing-contraction”] Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University (and well-known blogger) was on BloombergTV last night, talking about a ‘disconnect’ between official economic numbers out of China and what he’s seeing on the ground.You can watch the video below, but we’ve taken notes, and the gist is that […]
Chinese Vice President (and presidential heir-apparent) Xi Jinping is on a multi-day official visit to the United States this week, and not surprisingly, one of the first issues raised was the US-China trade imbalance. I was quoted in a number of articles, including this one in the Los Angeles Times, […]
People like Patrick Chovanec have warned of a Chinese hard landing for years, but don’t think we’ve escaped the worst of it.
As the year comes to a close, and we look forward to 2012, I continue the tradition I started last year and offer a brief look at the top stories that shaped China’s business and economic climate in 2011:
Earlier this week, the U.S. Senate held hearings on a bill to jumpstart domestic production of “rare earth” minerals, in order to break China’s near-monopoly on these little known but essential raw materials. Yesterday, I was asked to appear on Chinese TV to offer some background and insight on the issue.
[credit provider=”wikimedia commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cup_jade_India_Louvre_R331-332.jpg”] The New York Times had an intriguing story yesterday on the skyrocketing price of jade in China. According to the article, the demand for jade among China’s newly rich “appears to have reached a frenzy in the past year or two.” The price of the finest jade […]
Michael Wines has an excellent report in today’s New York Times, about the rising dominance of China’s state-owned enterprises, at the expense of the once-vibrant private sector. Although partly an unanticipated consequence of China’s big stimulus push, he notes, the trend may — to some degree — reflect a more profound shift in […]
I was cited in an op-ed in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, on “China’s looming real estate bubble,” which you can check out here (if you get the access-restricted version using this link, try Googling the title, I found the Google link goes to a non-restricted page).
Monthly inflation figures are due out tomorrow from the Chinese government, which will no doubt provide plenty of fodder for the debate over whether China’s economy faces greater danger from overheating or from a renewed slowdown. The government has made it quite clear that its target is to keep consumer (CPI) inflation capped […]
[credit provider=” Saad Akhtar via Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/saad/1901721/”] I have an article in this month’s (August 2010) issue of China Economic Review, on rising labour costs in China and their impact on China’s competitiveness. You can read it here. My basic argument is that while stimulus project in China’s interior provinces have […]
Here’s a rather remarkable story, courtesy of Eurosport:
Two quick follow-ups pulled from the news today, which reinforce the points I made yesterday, before moving on to the topic of structural reform in Chinese banks:
A couple of weeks ago, I published a column outlining my doubts about the health of China’s banking system in the lead-up to the Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank)’s IPO. Given the lackluster performance of that share launch – despite the considerable political capital Beijing mobilized behind making it a success – it seems I was hardly […]
Yesterday, China announced that its exports in May surged 48.5% compared to the same month last year. Imports into China rose by nearly the same percentage, 48.3%, but overall, China’s trade surplus for the month spiked to a historically strong US$20 billion. Stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen rallied 3% […]