China's economic growth has outpaced the US's for decades. The Evergrande crisis and weak government support give the US a chance to take the lead.
Goldman Sachs cut its US GDP forecast for 2021 and 2022 based on the ongoing impact of Covid-19 on spending and the semiconductor chip shortage.
While consumption in the US has jumped by 16% since the depths of the pandemic, the path forward looks littered with hurdles, Goldman said.
Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both slashed forecasts for third-quarter growth. Americans just aren't spending enough to keep the recovery booming.
Jobs, demand, and wages have all boomed over the past few months. The Delta variant may change that, but the hot vax summer has been very real.
The economy benefitted massively from vaccines and reopening under Biden. Conversely, the Trump presidency saw the worst growth since Hoover.
US economic output for the second quarter widely missed expectations. The White House's spending plans promise a healthy boost.
US economic output grew at an annualized rate of 6.5% in the second quarter, missing the 8.5% estimate but placing GDP above its pre-crisis peak.
GDP growth is expected to be the strongest since 1984 this year. But on a quarterly basis, June will mark the peak of faster growth, the bank said.
The OECD lifted its 2021 global growth estimate to 5.8% from 4.2%. G20 nations will outperform while emerging nations are set to lag, the organization said.
Biden's budget forecasts a boom lasting just two years, shorter than previous recoveries and out of step with many investment banks' projections.
The bank upgraded its 2022 GDP projection but warned that rebounding rent costs are flashing "signs of more persistent inflationary pressures."
The central bank's model sees second-quarter growth reaching an annualized rate of 10.4%. That would be the second strongest expansion since 1978.
The US has now recovered about 96% of its pandemic-era decline in output. A 10% surge for first-quarter GDP would have completed the economic rebound.
The recession will likely leave smaller scars than the financial crisis, but developing nations are still lagging advanced economies, the IMF said.
Stimulus and essential workers helped the world avoid a recession that would've been "at least three times worse," the IMF's managing director said.
The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan approved this month contributed to a 45% jump in card spending from a year ago as of March 20, BofA economists said.
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