Markets haven’t yet priced in a Joe Biden win, which means the dollar still has plenty of room to weaken, Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday. “With the dollar starting to weaken, many now claim this election outcome is priced in,” strategist George Saravelos said. “We disagree.” Saravelos noted that real […]
The November presidential election will bring sweeping changes to the outlook for the US economy, according to a Thursday note from Deutsche Bank. Depending on the outcome, the economy could benefit from a wave of more stimulus and increased government spending, or it could be stifled by congressional gridlock. Here […]
The pandemic wrecked the US economy, and now – in less than two weeks – voters are set to decide which candidate they want to put it back together. Trump and Biden are making competing cases they are the best person to rebuild the economy. But history suggests that presidents […]
US retail sales in September improved from the prior month as the nation contended with still-heightened coronavirus infection rates and a lack of new stimulus. Spending increased 1.9% last month, landing above the average economist estimate of 0.8%. The reading marks the fifth straight month of improvement and a sizeable […]
A blue wave this November led by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would lead to a surge in economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman said in a note on Monday that Democratic control of the presidency and Congress would raise the probability of a fiscal stimulus package worth at […]
The US added 749,000 private payrolls in August, according to ADP’s monthly employment report. The total beat the median economist estimate of 649,000 payrolls, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The report precedes the US government’s nonfarm payrolls report slated for Friday release. Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories. […]
Goldman Sachs said the options market is showing investors are preparing for high volatility well beyond election day, suggesting that price swings will stay elevated into early 2021. Options on the S&P 500 index have fallen to a 2.8% move on November 4, down from a 3.2% swing in mid-August […]
Americans spent less than expected at retailers in August as the economy reopened further. US retail sales increased 0.6% last month, missing the average economist estimate of 1%. Though the reading marks the fourth straight month of improvement, the indicator’s rally slowed through the summer as stimulus programs expired and […]
The world economy will collapse by 4.5% this year despite a swift recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD’s latest economic outlook is less negative than expected, but the organisation said 2020 will still mark the worst contraction in growth since […]
US stocks ended Friday lower, even after the August jobs report showed strong job additions and a better-than-expected unemployment rate. Major indexes were dragged lower by their most heavily weighted tech stocks for a second straight day. Mega-cap tech names like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet led declines. Visit Business Insider’s […]
US private payrolls rose 428,000 in August, according to the ADP monthly employment report released Wednesday. The median economist estimate was that payrolls would rise by 1 million in August, according to Bloomberg data. The report is a precursor to the US government’s July nonfarm payrolls release, scheduled for Friday. […]
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said on a Monday interview with CNBC that he expects stock market returns to slow going forward. “The overall market, we’ve been pulling a lot of demand forward. I would expect that future returns will be relatively unimpressive for a long time,” Cooperman said. He added […]
Contrary to popular belief, the stock market and economy have performed better under Democratic presidents than it has under Republican presidents, according to data going back to 1946. Liberum, a UK-based investment bank, pointed to historical stock market returns and annual GDP growth to make the case that a Republican […]
Global stocks fell on Thursday as investors weighed the Fed’s cautious stance on further stimulus, and Germany posted a record increase in new coronavirus infections. Investors had expected the latest Fed meeting to “open the door to the next phase in central-bank jigger-pokery,” Rabobank analysts said. Federal Open Market Committee […]
Goldman Sachs said in a note Thursday the S&P 500 can hit 3,600 if markets price in the bank’s “comparatively more optimistic US GDP forecast.” The bank’s strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang say if the economy contracts by only by 5% in 2020, and grows by 6.2% next year, […]
The stock market still has “a ways to go” even as it approaches record all-time highs, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Siegel said that the increased liquidity from central bank policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will flow into stocks, pushing […]
The stock market is on the verge of hitting record all-time highs, with the S&P 500 trading less than 1% below its intraday high of 3,393 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 has already cruised to all-time highs as technology stocks have led the recovery since the market bottom on […]
Michael Kantrowitz, Cornerstone Macro chief investment strategist, told Bloomberg on Monday that the stock market is becoming a larger portion of the economy, and consumer wealth and income are “more leveraged than ever to the stock market.” The strategist also said because interest rates are so low, there’s few effective […]
Stocks that are poised to benefit from the reopening of the US economy are set to experience a “monstrous rally” next week, according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. In a CNBC interview with Scott Wapner on Friday, Lee said that when COVID-19 cases peaked in April, it took 20 days for […]
US private payrolls rose 167,000 in July, a Wednesday report from ADP showed. Economists had expected that private payrolls would rise by 1.2 million in July. The report is a precursor to the US government’s July nonfarm payrolls release, scheduled for Friday. Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories. US […]
Global consumer confidence slumped by the most on record in the second quarter as the coronavirus pandemic slammed job prospects and weighed on finances, according to a Wednesday report from The Conference Board. The board’s Global Consumer Confidence index fell to 92 from 106 in the first quarter. A reading […]
Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index fell 0.4 points to 42.9 in the week ending July 5, Bloomberg reported Thursday. It’s the first time in seven weeks that the index has declined. The slump in the index was led by a decline in buying attitudes and sentiment from respondents in the South, […]
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller says a second wave of COVID-19 could cause more damage to the national psyche than the first outbreak. “It might have a worse psychological response the second time,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. The US reported a record 60,000 new cases of COVID-19 […]
In the second quarter of 2020, equity funds posted their best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1999, according to data from Refinitiv Lipper. The average equity fund returned 20.22% in the quarter, and Lipper’s US Diversified Equity Funds macro-classification returned 23.52%, outperforming six other major equity groups. US […]
US stocks jumped Monday following a rally in China, where stock-buying was encouraged to support the recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The gains follow a strong June jobs report last Thursday, which showed American businesses added 4.8 million payrolls last month handily beating expectations of a 3 million payroll increase. […]
Wirecard’s primary business operations in Europe and the US have been unprofitable for years, according to a Financial Times investigation, bringing into question official financial reports which showed significant profits. An internal audit conducted by KPMG shows that Wirecard’s outsourced activities in Asia made up for the “lion’s share” of […]
Christophe Barraud, chief economist of the broker-dealer Market Securities, has been ranked Bloomberg’s most accurate forecaster of US economic data eight years in a row. He told Business Insider that the US won’t return to its fourth quarter 2019 GDP of 2.1% until at least 2022, and for some European […]
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday said the US added 4.8 million jobs in June. That exceeded the 3 million payroll additions expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It marks the second straight month of job additions as the economy tries to claw back from a coronavirus-induced recession. […]
Investors have three reasons to be bullish on stocks for the next few months, Bank of America said in a note published on Wednesday. The firm pointed to the economic surprise index hitting record highs and said “we are still in the phase where consensus underestimates the rebound in data.” […]
As many as 27% of CEOs said that they do not expect their businesses to recover to pre-coronavirus levels until after 2021, according to the Business Roundtable’s Economic Outlook released Monday. The rest of the top CEOs expect to recover to pre-coronavirus levels by the end of 2021. A composite […]
US stocks fell Friday amid spiking coronavirus cases that are threatening to slow economic reopenings nationwide. Bank stocks slumped after the Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it will limit stock buybacks and cap dividends. The decline comes amid data showing that US consumer spending jumped a record in May […]
US stocks gained Thursday as investors weighed the impact of the coronavirus on economic-reopening efforts. Bank stocks led a mid-day reversal into positive territory after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. rolled back post-financial crisis rules. Meanwhile, states such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen spikes in COVID-19 cases, spurring […]
A disconnect between financial markets and the real economy raises the risk of a correction in risk assets, the International Monetary Fund warned in its Global Financial Stability update Thursday. A correction is defined as a drop of at least 10% in the price of an asset. There are a […]
Global stocks fell on Wednesday following a report that the US is set to impose fresh tariffs on European goods, and the number of coronavirus cases around the world continues to surge. Futures tied to US stocks fell between 0.5% and 0.9% and are set to open lower. Europe indexes […]
The economy will stage a “big V” rebound from its second-quarter lows over the next few months, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman said Monday. Economic reopenings will drive the first bounce-back but fail to completely bring the US back to 2019 levels of activity, he said during the Bloomberg Invest Global […]
The rate on the popular 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to another record low of 3.13%, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. It’s the fourth time the US mortgage rate has slipped to a record low since the coronavirus pandemic began to roil global markets in March. The falling […]
The Bank of England said on Thursday it would inject another $US125 billion in monetary stimulus to shore up distressed financial markets, taking its total quantitative easing programme to $US934 billion. The bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. With the UK economy shrinking by 20% in April and […]
The UK’s central bank is expected to add another $US125 billion of monetary stimulus to boost its asset purchase program and stabilise the economy, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday, with an […]
US stocks surged Tuesday as investors cheered a record jump in monthly retail sales and reports the Trump administration is preparing a $US1 trillion infrastructure proposal. Domestic retail sales rebounded 17.7% in May, a record increase that more than doubled economist estimates. Tuesday’s climb extends gains from the final hours […]
The International Energy Agency, in its closely-watched oil market report, predicted that global oil demand will drop by 8.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest decline in history. Demand is expected to rebound by a record 5.7 million barrels a day in 2021, IEA said. The agency adjusted […]
The federal assistance programs that tided over jobless workers and struggling businesses early on in the pandemic are set to expire this summer. Congress is barreling towards the July deadline, setting up a cliff that could lead to critical aid being yanked from struggling people. “What really concerns me is […]
The May nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday from the Labour Department. It’s expected to be another dismal report following record jobs lost and a huge surge in unemployment in April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US economy lost 8 million jobs in May and that the unemployment […]
A Wall Street firm that nailed the market bottom now expects the S&P 500 index to jump 8% to 3,250 by the end of August. In a note published on Wednesday, Stifel abandoned its previous price target of 2,950 due to its view that economic data has bottomed, market technicals […]
Most global stocks rose on Thursday, shrugging off the approval of a new security law in Hong Kong, which many fear will allow Beijing to rule the semi-autonomous region with greater control, and could threaten its status as a global financial centre. Instead, investors continued to focus on the easing […]
Jamie Dimon said the US could see a fairly rapid recovery at a Deutsche Bank conference Tuesday, Bloomberg reported. “The government has been pretty responsive, large companies have the wherewithal, hopefully we’re keeping the small ones alive,” said Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan. He added that the “increasingly strong actions” […]
Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett outlined six reasons why the stock market continues to rally amid dismal economic data in a note Thursday. One reason could be “fake markets,” according to Hartnett. “Government and corporate bond prices have been fixed by central banks…why would anyone expect stocks […]
Rebecca Henderson, a Harvard economist and author of “Reimagining Capitalism,” said the coronavirus pandemic is a turning point in the conversation surrounding capitalism. More leaders are talking about inequality and climate change than ever before. The coronavirus pandemic presents a “silver lining” because it’s an opportunity to completely reimagine capitalism. […]
Luckin Coffee cratered as much as 45% on Wednesday after a month-long trading halt on the stock was lifted. The company was originally halted on April 7 after it announced that senior executives fabricated as much as 2.2 billion yuan ($US310 million) in sales last year. Luckin received a delisting […]
US stocks slumped only slightly last week amid a slew of negative economic data and headlines. It could’ve been much worse, Evercore ISI analysts led by Dennis DeBusschere wrote in a Sunday note. Here are five reasons that stocks didn’t tank last week, according to Evercore ISI. Read more on […]
The stock market’s rally from March lows overcame dismal economic reports, corporate profit warnings, and economist caution. As stock market investors pocket sizable gains, experts warn the uptrend is fragile and facing significant threats. “Gravity is taking over” as markets begin to assess reopening risks and a second wave of […]
Goldman Sachs now thinks second-quarter GDP will decline 39%, and increased its peak unemployment rate estimate to 25% from 15%, according to a note published Tuesday evening. Following the first quarter GDP and April unemployment data release, Goldman now estimates that consumer services spending fell 20% from pre-virus levels in […]
Iraq is at the forefront of OPEC plans to cut oil supply to the valuable Asian market, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Iraq’s state-owned oil company SOMO informed at least three of its Asian customers that they would not be given the full contractual volumes agreed upon for June, Bloomberg said. It […]
Starting this week, 120 Germans will receive approximately $US1,400 every month for three years as part of a study on universal basic income by the German Institute for Economic Research. Universal basic income is a policy that guarantees a minimum income for citizens or residents, usually paid in the form […]
Expect disposable personal income to grow in the US this year, Goldman Sachs said. Despite the economic despair caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with storefronts shut down across the country and jobless claims approaching 30 million in six weeks, Goldman Sachs said that a combination of factors are “likely to […]
US stocks slipped on Thursday after data showed that another 3.8 million Americans filed for unemployment last week. Still, both the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 completed their best months since 1987. Shares of Tesla and Facebook surged in early trading after the companies reported earnings. Tesla later […]
More than 17.8 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits right now. To help unemployed Americans, Stanford economist Matthew Jackson said the US needs a “New New Deal.” His proposal references President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal after the Great Depression. Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories. This […]
The Labour Department reported on Thursday that 5.2 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the week that ended April 11. That brings the four-week total to roughly 22.03 million, a record for a period of that length. It also means that coronavirus-related layoffs have effectively erased the 22 million […]
The Labour Department reported on Thursday that 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the week that ended April 4. That brings the three-week total to roughly 16.8 million unemployment filings, a record for a period of that length. A record 10 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in […]
The consensus economist estimate is that 5 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the week ending April 3. The report will be released by the Labour Department on Thursday. During the week ending March 21, 3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits. And in the following week, 6.6 million […]
Sixty-six per cent of investors have not touched their stock portfolios even amid the coronavirus market meltdown, according to a survey released Tuesday by Bankrate. Still, Americans have reduced spending during the pandemic, the survey showed. Fifty-two per cent said they’d cut down on spending due to the pandemic and […]
Sen. Ron Johnson called on President Donald Trump to reopen segments of the US economy, saying in a USA Today op-ed article that “death is an unavoidable part of life.” The Wisconsin senator mentioned last year’s “exceptionally bad” flu season and said Americans shouldn’t overreact. Trump on Sunday extended the […]
President Trump said on Tuesday that he wanted to ease coronavirus restrictions and reopen the US economy by Easter. That timeline goes against the advice of top public health experts, like Dr. Anthony Fauci, who are concerned that easing social distancing too soon could exacerbate the pandemic. Trump’s plan could […]
The director-general of the World Health Organisation said global markets should “calm down and try to see the reality” as the coronavirus wreaks havoc on the global economy. His caution comes just after the S&P 500 closed out its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. “We need to go […]
Coronavirus has infected 64,000 and killed 1,380 so far. And as the health crisis worsens, it’s become increasingly clear that the outbreak will have wide-reaching economic consequences. China’s economy is forecast to grow by the smallest margin since the Great Recession – news that will hit its embattled and vulernable […]
The opening day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland featured the release of PwC’s latest CEO survey. It found that CEO pessimism about global growth is currently at a record high. The lack of confidence in the world economy is jarring, especially considering the strength of […]
Britain’s pound crashed on Wednesday morning over fears of a no-deal Brexit. The pound was down 0.7% against the dollar and 0.6% against the euro as of 1:30 pm in London. Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has asked the queen to suspend Parliament in a bid to force a […]
Trump’s trade war is hammering US growth and is set to raise consumer prices, according to Goldman Sachs economists. “Last week we nudged down our growth forecasts for Q3, Q4, and 2020 Q1 by 0.1 percentage point, and now expect growth of 2.0%, 1.7%, and 2.2%, respectively.” The bank also […]
China has consistently grown by more than 6% for almost 30 years, but Trump’s latest tariffs could break that trend. The duties could slow growth by up to 0.5 percentage points this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists. Tariffs “pose some challenges to China’s exports and economy,” […]
Fears of a German recession are rising after Europe’s biggest economy posted its second-lowest manufacturing readout in six years. New orders and new export orders remained at “exceptionally low levels,” one analyst said. View Markets Insider’s homepage for more stories. Fears of a German recession are rising after Europe’s biggest […]
China’s renminbi slipped to its lowest level in a decade on Thursday, after earlier this month allowing its currency to weaken to more than 7:1 to the dollar. The weaker currency will help China in the trade war, as it helps to stop capital flight out of the country, but […]
Allianz’s chief economic advisor puts the odds of Europe falling into recession at 70%. Mohamed El-Erian told Financial News that due to Brexit and a shrinking German economy, there’s a good chance that Europe will suffer its second crisis in a decade. Germany’s central bank warned of a potential recession […]
Germany’s economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter, driven by a decline in exports due to the US-China trade war. The slowdown is bad news given Germany is Europe’s largest economy and a key player in the eurozone. The contraction comes after the UK economy shrunk last week for the […]
The UK economy contracted for the first time since 2012, as GDP slid 0.2% between April and June. The Office for National Statistics said a fall in construction and manufacturing output was to blame. The pound fell 0.4% against the dollar to below $US1.21, adding to its 4.5% fall over […]
Today’s top five Democratic candidates have plenty of ideas on how they will keep the ongoing, historically strong period of economic expansion alive. Many fear a recession in 2020, and only some candidates have laid out specific plans on how they will avoid economic downturn. Here’s a rundown of the […]
Three of Europe’s largest economies are under threat of recession, which could spell a currency crisis across Europe. Dozens of companies in Germany have turned to “short-time” work – cutting employee hours – a canary in the coal mine of industrial weakness Britain could also already be in a recession […]
The US economic expansion, at 121 months and counting, became the longest on record on July 1. The record-breaking expansion has also been one of the slowest, with job and GDP growth lagging other post-war recoveries. Now, economists are watching how much longer the expansion will run. There have been […]
The US no longer has the world’s most competitive economy. Singapore and Hong Kong overtook the US for the top spots in this year’s IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. The UAE, Qatar, and Thailand also moved up the ranking since 2018. Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories. The United States […]
Economists and investors alike have been sounding the alarm for months on an economic recession. The New York Times recently surveyed 134 business leaders at the Yale CEO Summit and found that almost half expected a recession to strike by the end of the year. That’s the most dire reading […]
The number of credit card accounts increased by 2.6% compared to this time last year. Some experts believe the increase is a good sign for America’s economy. The credit card delinquency rate has also risen slightly, increasing from 1.69% to 1.78%. Credit card use is on the rise. The number […]
President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that a strong economy should be pushing stocks higher, and he called the market’s recent decline a “big mistake.” His tweet suggests he doesn’t fully understand the dynamics that drive and have been driving the stock market during his term. Before President Donald Trump tweets […]
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