The evidence is scant.
"A vicious cycle may ensue."
LNG. It's a bit of a thing.
[credit source=”RBA”] RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe was chipper today in a speech to the Australian Industry Group’s annual economics forum.
If you live in Sydney and were stuck in traffic this morning, don’t expect it to get better any time soon.
[credit provider=”Flickr/Ctwirler12″ url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]
/440394290/”] Why do we have such an aversion to horse meat?The discovery of traces of horse meat in food products supposedly made of beef or pork has caused a scandal in Britain and, most recently, prompted Ikea to withdraw its Swedish meatballs from stores in 21 European countries.
For instance, on the planet Earth, man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time. But conversely, the dolphins […]
Last May, investor Mark Dow wrote a fantastic post on his blog titled: Reagan’s Gone. You’re Old. Get Over it.
[credit provider=”flickr/poptech” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/poptech/6266901996/sizes/l/in/photostream/”] At the end of the day, business is all about incentives and thinking about the way people act.Understanding what motivates people is the basis for a huge field of research — behavioural economics — which can be applied to situations that extend well beyond the business world.
[credit provider=”AP”] Yesterday, we noted that the Congressional Budget Office was forecasting that many short-term drivers of the deficit were being taken care of through upcoming cuts and revenue increases. But, the CBO also reported that one of the most important long term drivers of the debt is becoming less of […]
[credit provider=”Flickr/lsgcp” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]
/2217391916/”] We will see increasingly creative partnerships between for-profit entities and traditional universities, writes Linda Lorimer, Vice-President of Yale University.We often hear references to “the” future of the university. In fact, the WEF has a Global Agenda Council dedicated to the subject. But the members of our GAC identified early […]
When a friend sent me this paper the other day, I admit that I took a long hard look at myself and my economist friends. According to this study, economists, it seems, are worse than most when it comes to truth telling. This discovery was made by researchers Raúl López-Pérez […]
I don’t totally agree here, but this is is a nice macro overview of the current landscape via BlackRock:
[credit provider=”AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos”] All signs point to the fact that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is not long for this world. The last reports of his condition say that his cancer treatment isn’t going very well and that he’s suffering from complications from a severe lung infection.So it’s time to […]
There’s been a lot of ink spilled in recent weeks over the problems (or lack thereof) in modern macroeconomics (see here and here). I’ve expressed my opinion that the state of modern macro is moving in the right direction because there’s serious debate about the problems with the mainstream approaches […]
Since 1977, Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to control inflation while enabling full employment.
At the Dealbook conference, a panel just wrapped up hosted by NYT econ reporter Annie Lowrey, along with Jared Bernstein, Glenn Hubbard, and the economist Robert Gordon.
[credit provider=”Wikipedia” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Reagan_photo_at_National_Portrait_Gallery_IMG_4449.JPG”] Here’s the heart of the big New York Times story on taxes:Most Americans in 2010 paid far less in total taxes — federal, state and local — than they would have paid 30 years ago.
[credit provider=”Associated Press” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=mc%20donalds&showact=results&sort=relevance&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1285787999&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=a94eeb60dee0da11af9f0014c2589dfb&dbm=PY2002&page=1&xslt=1″] What does the drama in Washington over the “fiscal cliff” have to do with strikes and work stoppages among America’s lowest-paid workers at Walmart, McDonald’s, Burger King, and Domino’s Pizza?Everything.
[credit provider=”Wikimedia/Eric Draper” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bush_addresses_media_on_Israel-Lebanon_w_Cheney_Aug_14_2006.jpg”] The Republican Party has long promoted itself as the party of business.Republicans understand the needs of business, we are told, and if the country would leave the economy in their hands business would boom.
[credit provider=”Official White House Photo by Pete Souza”] The Washington Post’s White House economics reporter Zachary A. Goldfarb recently published two articles that show very different sides to President Barack Obama, but both sides share one remarkable thing in common: they present a President whose policies are actually driving America […]
[credit provider=”Gage Skidmore, Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/6468746437/”] On economic policy, Mitt Romney makes his own decisions.The former Massachusetts governor and private equity executive considers the advice from his cadre of economics PhDs but ultimately charts his own course, according to the Romney campaign.
[credit provider=”bluedharma / Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/bluedharma/89187774/”] Morgan Stanley’s Cross-Asset Strategy team just published its new Global Debates Playbook, wherein they ask each of their regional experts to summarize the hot economic topics in their coverage areas.The report considers how messy Europe can get, whether China is rebounding, how uncertainty will slam […]
The left keeps banging away at the preferential tax treatment of capital gains income. And that may be good politics. But is it good economics? Here is Tino Sanandaji, explaining the meaning of the above chart from his must-read, must-follow blog:
[credit provider=”Getty Images”] I consider myself an active Republican. I vote in elections, attend events for the party, and participate in rallies. However, it seems like every day I turn on the news to find another speech or quote that has me questioning why I’m even voting for Romney and […]
[credit provider=”Orin Zebest at www.flickr.com” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/orinrobertjohn/137305231/”] The events of the last decade have forever changed the global economy.The Long-Term Capital Management crisis, the Technology stock bubble, September 11, and the most recent economic crisis have brought a heightened awareness and prudence towards investing, and the consequences will invariably affect the […]
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Northwestern_Europe_at_Night.JPG”] A little over two years ago, I wrote an article for Business Insider explaining the difference between finance, economics, and my new discipline called Globalnomics. In that Insider article I explained that even though Globalnomics is actually superior to and mediates over the other two disciplines, Globalnomics […]
[credit provider=”Fox News”] “Americans … values and basic beliefs are more polarised along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years.” (Pew Research)Pundits bemoan this polarization, and await a leader who’ll cut the Gordian knot of gridlock politics to deliver us to a bi-partisan nirvana. The pundits […]
[credit provider=”See / WVU ” url=”http://www.csee.wvu.edu/~ksmani/courses/fa01/random/lecnotes/lecture5.pdf”] This year Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapley are splitting the Nobel Prize for Economics, and it’s about time.Each has made a huge impact on both the theory and the real world practice of economics, and have saved thousands of lives in doing so.
[credit provider=”Courtesy of barackobama.com”] Although the Obama-Biden campaign is arguing otherwise, Romney-Ryan are not proposing to dismantle America’s social insurance system.They want to mend and modernize the Welfare State, not rend it or end it. They want a safety net that is fiscally sustainable, one with incentives that are pro-family, […]
One of the most common justifications for hefty CEO compensation packages is that if the leaders of industry are not paid well, the so-called best and brightest will no longer flock to fill the corporate ranks, and will instead go elsewhere.
[credit provider=”Flickr/Peter Krantz” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/pkz/2094760751/sizes/z/in/photostream/”] Each year, Thomson Reuters’ David Pendlebury uses the company’s Web of Knowledge research platform to predict Nobel winners in physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine and economics.Since 2002, he’s predicted 26 winners, and last year, every single winner was previously predicted, either in 2008 or 2010, according to Popular Science.
[credit provider=”flickr/ultimateslug” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/ultimateslug/558920533/sizes/l/in/photostream/”] Studentbeans.com conducted a survey of college students, asking the number of sexual partners they’d had since the beginning of college (h/t Wall Street Oasis).The standard thing to do with that information is to compile it by school and watch the college rivalries unfold, but they went even […]
[credit provider=”AP”] President Obama doesn’t think Americans should fret about the exploding national debt.As he told talk show host David Letterman recently, “We don’t have to worry about it short term. Right now interest rates are low because people still consider the United States the safest and greatest country on […]
[credit provider=”Daily Bail” url=”http://dailybail.com/home/reuters-special-report-whos-watching-out-for-conflict-of-int.html”] Economics students probably do it daily, according to UK site StudentBeans.com.The site asked 4,656 sexually active students from more than 100 universities across the UK.
[credit provider=”US Air Force” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chalkboard_in_a_school_in_Afghanistan.jpg”] First of all, let’s be clear. The biggest tragedy in the economy is the 8.1% unemployment rate, and the rising number of people on food stamps.This post is about economics, the field of academics and policy that’s of far less significance than the economy.
[credit provider=”Dr. Ed’s Blog” url=”http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/08/global-economic-indicators.html”] If you are looking for better-than-expected global economic indicators, welcome home; they are mostly here in the US. Earlier this month, July reports for payroll employment, retail sales, and industrial production were all on the strong side, with all three rising to new cyclical highs. […]
[credit provider=”Dr. Ed’s Blog” url=”http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/08/the-fed-cliff.html”] Evel Knievel was an American daredevil, who attempted over 75 ramp-to-ramp motorcycle jumps between 1965 and 1980. In 1974, he failed in his attempt to jump across Snake River Canyon in a rocket. He survived, and died in 2007 of pulmonary disease. Fed Chairman Ben […]
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BNSF_GE_Dash-9_C44-9W_Kennewick_-_Wishram_WA.jpg”] The AAR reported a 3.6% increase in intermodal traffic this week and a -2.1% decline in carloads. This data has been remarkably consistent in recent weeks though it’s off slightly in the last few months. The 10 week moving average has dipped just slightly to 5% […]
This morning my friend Tyler Durden posted a chart showing the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence index versus the S&P 500. That poll, released this morning showed a continued drop in consumer comfort to -47.4 reading. Consumer confidence and sentiment on most all measures remain mired at recessionary levels which has been reflected in […]
In an interview with King World News, John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics explains that the possibility of America becoming energy independent is real.He also believes that exporting energy would put America on the path to prosperity.
[credit provider=”Dr. Ed’s Blog”] Let’s review some of the indicators that can be useful in assessing the near-term outlook for the stock market: (1) Rydex Asset Ratio is bearish. Yesterday, Don Hays, a savvy market pro and good friend, noted: “On the Psychology side, one of our very best indicators from […]
There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the “optimistic” outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to – the problem is that the current “no recession” view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked […]
A good economist will always give you a prediction or a timeframe, but never both. This applies to a great deal of people outside of economists and market pundits and I think it also has to do with the fact that asset managers generally garner more respect regarding predictions […]
Niall Ferguson has a huge piece in The Daily Beast saying Obama needs to get fired titled: “Hit The Road, Barack.”
NOTE: The post originally appeared on Mark Dow’s blog on May 30.
[credit provider=”Courtesy of CNN”] In the last round of a three-day campaign swing in Iowa, President Barack Obama slammed Mitt Romney’s tax plan as “trickle-down snake oil.””They have tried to sell this trickle-down snake oil before. It didn’t work then, it won’t work now,” Obama told a crowd of supporters in […]
Bill Fleckenstein had some choice words for the Federal Reserve in an interview with King World News today, saying that “The Fed really is the engine or the driving force behind much of what’s gone wrong in the country in the last 20 years.”
From David Greenlaw via Morgan Stanley’s latest Global Debates Playbook.
I have read several articles as of late discussing the excessive “bearishness” of investors, which from a contrarian point of view, is “bullish” for the stock market. The general position is that investors are sobearish that they are now just hiding in bonds and stuffing cash into their mattresses, and let’s not forget stocking […]
Two headlines today from Switzerland tell an important story.
[credit provider=”Dr. Ed’s Blog” url=”http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/08/cult-of-equity.html”] In his August Investment Outlook posted on PIMCO’s website on July 31, Bill Gross declared that the “cult of equity is dying.” That’s a late call since the cult has been mostly dying after flourishing during the 1990s, as evidenced by the secular downtrend in valuation multiples […]
[credit provider=”Nienetwiler, Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Appenzeller-Spitzhauben1_PSR.jpg”] I don’t get angry very often, but here’s something that managed to really push my buttons.Around America the same phenomena are occurring: In some of the nation’s poorest towns, it’s becoming illegal to be resilient.
[credit provider=”Wikipedia”] Paul Krugman and Steve Keen see the world a bit differently.Back in April, the two economists engaged in a lengthy online debate over the nature of credit creation – essentially, Keen argues that banks are really in control of the money supply whereas Paul Krugman sees the Fed […]
I’m in Alaska, amid moose and bear, trying to steal some time away from the absurdities of American politics and economics. But even at this remote distance I caught wind of Sanford Weill’s proposal this morning on CNBC that big banks be broken up in order to shield taxpayers from […]
During our recent interview with Paul Krugman, we asked him a bit about his lifestyle, and how he has the time to post on his blog several times a day.
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oaklandatnight02192006.JPG”] Yesterday, San Bernardino became the third city since the end of June to file for bankruptcy. The largest of the filings was Stockton, California, who had to take out a $121 million loan to pay for pensions.Now, Oakland is looking to borrow $211 for its serious […]
[credit provider=”(Photo by David Bebber – WPA Pool/Getty Images)”] The London Olympics are just over 2 weeks away.At this point many fan are already wondering about the medal tallies. While others ware wondering about the economic impact of this colossal sporting event.
San Bernardino filed for the second largest city bankruptcy in U.S. history earlier today, after two other cities in California, including the largest bankruptcy ever in Stockton, have filed in recent weeks.
Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist for Raymond James, thinks Europe recently took some steps in the right direction in addressing its debt crisis.
[credit provider=”Andrey Belenko on www.flickr.com” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/belenko/4250613377/”] Wenzhou of Zhejiang province is one of the most, if not the most, entrepreneurial places in China. It also happens to be the place where many of the shadow banking mess in China is concentrated in. We have mentioned loan sharks, trusts, and mutual […]
In an interview with Opalesque TV, Jim Chanos gave his thoughts on short selling and also added his outlook on the China macro and micro situation.
War and politics have been the focal point of the downfall of many dominant nations over the course of world history, but poor economic decisions have also led to countries falling, people dying from hunger, and revolutions changing the course of world history.
[credit provider=”Frontline”] Paul Krugman has long criticised the handling of this crisis.He is now teaming up with British economist Richard Layard to get like-minded economists to sign what they call the ‘Manifesto For Economic Sense’.
In many ways, the contemporary history of America’s economy is really a story about cities.
One of the favourite books is Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It was published way back in 1841 but the lessons for traders are timeless. It shows how simple, misguided ideas can ruin economies for generations.
More Americans were “thriving” and fewer were “struggling” in May than have been since February of last year. 50-four per cent of Americans rated their lives highly enough to be considered thriving last month and 42.6% were considered struggling.
Whatever the reality, China is now generally perceived as the number one economic superpower in the world, according to research released this week from Pew Global.
[credit provider=”Flickr/Ed Yourdon” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3855923910/sizes/z/in/photostream/”] A few weeks ago, I wrote about the political economy of the obesity epidemic. Here, from a great oped in yesterday’s NYT, is the evolutionary science behind both the problem and the solution.Here’s the argument (though I strongly urge you to read the extremely well-crafted piece):
[credit provider=”FastLife.ca via Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]
/3059068355//”] For leaders of businesses, cities, and countries who want to understand their constituencies—and ultimately to know whether those constituencies are thriving—using traditional economic measures just isn’t sufficient.Those leaders should also know their constituencies’ wellbeing. In fact, economists are starting to care more about wellbeing and […]
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FIFA_World_Cup_2010_Spain_with_cup.jpg”] Via Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients this morning on the Spanish financial crisis and the upcoming Euro 2012 soccer tournament:Spain’s football clubs, just like its economy, are more leveraged than their peers, with a few commentators joking that some players might be used as […]
OUTSIDE China, people tend to assume that the country’s impressive economic growth is due to exports.
[credit provider=”Flickr/Ã‰ole” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/eole/5017737503/sizes/m/in/photostream/”] According to The Better Life Index by the OECD, America is the richest country in terms of household wealth but comes in 12th of 36 countries tracked in happiness.The average American household held $102,000 according to the report, significantly higher than the next closest country, Switzerland, which […]
[credit provider=”jurvetson | Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/480809538/”] Guest Post by Gabriel Rossman – Professor Rossman is a sociologist at UCLA. His work applies economic sociology to media industries. He blogs at Code and Culture and is the author of Climbing the Charts. In the course of a discussion about Mormons, a friend pointed me to a religious testimony […]
THE idea that an infusion of hope can make a big difference to the lives of wretchedly poor people sounds like something dreamed up by a well-meaning activist or a tub-thumping politician.
The Big Mac is a triumph of technology.
[credit provider=”Patrick Gage via Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/patrickgage/3639991958/”] Way back in heady days of 2009, Business Insider gave you 6 reasons to move to Iceland.Well, we actually spent some time there last month — and guess what!
LIKE the hero of “The Iliad”, China can seem invincible. In 2010 it overtook America in terms of manufactured output, energy use and car sales. Its military spending has been growing in nominal terms by an average of 16% each year for the past 20 years. According to the IMF, […]
MUCH of the rich world is fascinated by Germany. Despite being at the heart of sclerotic Europe, its GDP per head has risen by more than any other G7 country’s over the past decade. Unemployment in the troubled euro zone is at its highest since the single currency’s birth; in […]
The first quarter of 2012 was brutal for businesses in France: 16,206 filed for bankruptcy. A trajectory that may demolish the prior annual record set in 2009 during the worst of the financial crisis when 61,595 firms went bust. Since then, bankruptcy filings eased off: 58,673 in 2010 and 58,195 in […]
After walking down the aisle, NPR reporter Caitlin Kenney was convinced she’d overpaid for her mass-produced gown.
[credit provider=”Flickr / Frank Roche” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/orchidthief/64584568/in/photostream/”] Everyone’s getting swept up in this week’s Mega Millions frenzy, gushing about what they’d do if they won the jackpot. But what if they got lucky and had to split the prize?
One of David Rosenberg’s latest notes touched on 9 economic myths. If you’re familiar with his stance you probably know what his position is on each. So, instead of regurgitate them I am going to hijack his myths and insert my own opinions:
[credit provider=”Wootang01 | Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/mckln/4815028934/”] Last week, China delivered an ugly PMI number, which ignited fears of a hard landing for the world’s second largest economy.However, the China economists at UBS aren’t losing any sleep over the number.
From a new NABE survey on economic policy, here’s how economists see fiscal policy.
[credit provider=”Wootang01 | Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/mckln/4815028934/”] Supporters of economic reform in China have not had much to cheer over the last few years, but there are growing hopes that the transition to a new generation of national leaders over the course of 2012-13 will kick-start the policy agenda. Ahead of the […]
Earlier this month the labour Department reported that 227,000 new jobs were added to the economy in February, marking the third consecutive month of positive jobs growth. Many observers took the news as evidence that the recovery has taken hold in earnest, helping send the S&P 500 index to the […]
[credit provider=”DonkeyHotey | Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/donkeyhotey/5500961693/in/set-72157626574790362″] This post originally appeared at The Fiscal Times.The U.S. is leading most of its major trading partners in burrowing out of the mountain of private sector debt that nearly destroyed the global economy and is still retarding the economic recovery, a new report says.
U.S. economic confidence improved sharply to -18 in the week ending March 11 from -25 the prior week — the highest since the week ending Feb. 13, 2011, when it was also -18. The -18 readings this year and last are the highest weekly levels Gallup has recorded since it […]
This post originally appeared at Project Syndicate.
It’s no secret that a number of big-time hedge fund managers are really disappointed with the decisions policy makers have made in an attempt to bring the U.S. economy out of recession.
[credit provider=”AP Images”] Ken Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard, recently wrote a column accusing sports fans of hypocrisy because of their “blasé acceptance of the salaries of sports stars,” when those same fans react negatively to the salaries and bonuses of people on Wall Street…If a star basketball player […]
While the global financial meltdown and its aftershocks have unleashed a flood of indignation, condemnation, and protest upon Wall Street, the crisis has exposed a deeper distrust and implacable resentment of capitalism itself.
Friend of BI James Pethokoukis just put up this chart of GDPs per capita around the world.
In a previous post, I presented evidence that the world is far less globalized than most people believe, which implies there is also much more headroom to expand globalization than many think. Whether we should favour a more globalized world or not, of course, is an entirely different question, requiring an […]
Extreme economic inequality is among the most destructive forces in a society. As inequality grows, it undermines the effective functioning of the economy, the basic tenets of capitalism, and the foundations of democracy.
From Elisabeth Fosslien via Greg Mankiw. You can see 13 more here.