There are many reasons behind the doubling of America’s obesity rate over the past 25 years. Foodstamp use is higher, jobs have become more sedentary, populations are more sprawled, etc.
This could be an example of seeing two lines that moving similarly, and thinking there’s a connection, or maybe there’s some real insight here…
This provisional data for 2010 was released in June and shows a possible impact of the serious recession … From the National centre for Health Statistics: Recent Trends in Births and Fertility Rates Through 2010. The NCHS reports (provisional):
China is one of the top fastest growing economies in the world, and some economists believe China will overtake the US with a larger GDP in a matter of a few years. Last year, the number of millionaires in China grew 12 per cent, and while the US still has […]
Chinese researchers say the one-child policy will take a serious, negative toll on China’s demographics in the next 40 years, reports Caixin Magazine. So politicians in Guangdong have started pushing for reforms based on statistical information gathered from their region. The central government, however, looks un-yielding.
In predicting growth, demographers like to look at a country’s “Dependency Ratio,” a measure of how many old people there are, and how many young working people there are to support them.
[credit provider=”Clover Spa”] The German tradition of naked sunbathing is facing a crisis, reports Reuters (via MSNBC).”German society is changing and it’s not easy to be a naturist anymore,” says Kurt Fischer, president of the German Free Culture Society association (DFK). The number of nudists are dropping by 2% every […]
Thomas Friedman is “connecting the dots” in his New York Times column piece over the weekend, The Clash of Generations. The Global Macro Monitor posted a similar piece, Connecting the Dots: The Coming War Between Generations, back in March.
[credit provider=”en.wikipedia.org” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wallace_and_gromit.jpg”] England used to be the standard bearer for all of Western civilisation. So how does the average Briton live today?A comprehensive study by consulting firm Alert Me found that most British families have three meals together in a week, including Fish & Chips Friday.
William H. Frey, Senior Fellow, at the Brookings Institution discusses the Uneven ageing and “Younging” of America as noted in the 2010 census.
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElderlyWomanInGlasses2.jpg”] It’s a question we suspect that a lot of people have wondered about: Are US equities doomed, merely because over the coming years, a growing wave of retirees will sell assets to pay for their retirements?In a note called Respect Your Elders, Bo fA economist Neil […]
India’s burgeoning population has been touted as basis for the country’s growth story. Nearly half of its 1.25 billion people are under the age of 25 and by 2030 the country’s median age will be 31, much lower than China’s 42 and Japan’s 52, according to a report by Standard […]
Russia has among the lowest birth rates in the world, with a population set to decline 13% by 2040.
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Demi_Moore_and_Ashton_Kutcher_TechCrunch50.jpg”] From Deutsche Bank’s Ajay Kapur, an interesting discussion of demographics and what they mean for emerging market equities:The predictable path of demographic pigs in pythons has important clues for financial markets. We have done some work, building on original research, relating the Demi-Ashton ratio (folks in […]
[credit provider=”AP” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=china%20exercise%20public&showact=results&sort=creationdatelower%3Areversealphabetical&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1305640545&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=6e1492d8a32f4a5e84cc70d0e7c13b4a&dbm=PY2011&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] Asia is home to two of the biggest countries in the world but the entire region is set to see major demographic changes in the next decade.The number of youth are expected to fall in most countries, while the age group for those in their 50s is […]
[credit provider=”AP”] Today, Ireland announced plans to tax pensions in a bid to raise revenues to fund a jobs program.While Ireland is a special case, faced with strict spending rules due to its EU-IMF bailout, the same sort of practice could emerge in other developed countries, where the amount of […]
Asia has the population and the capital needed to become more than half of the world’s economy by 2050, if everything goes right, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Niall Ferguson has a new presentation on the decline of the West.
defence Secretary Robert Gates has made it very clear that he will soon be returning to private life. Replacing the Obama Administration’s most respected Cabinet member in the midst of three wars in Muslim nations is no small issue.
Good morning! Here’s what you need to know:
[credit provider=”flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/trevorpatt/5043665229/sizes/l/”] Black Americans are leaving northern states and relocating in the south, US census data show. Blacks are not just leaving Michigan, as one would expect. They are leaving New York and Illinois and the two major cities therein: New York City and Chicago. The New York Times reports […]
[credit provider=”AP”] News that Democratic National Committee Chairman and former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine will likely face off against former Republican Sen. George Allen for Virginia’s open Senate seat next year underscores how important the state will be for Democrats in 2012, writes the National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar.Kraushaar notes that […]
The most amazing boom of all time would be human population from the beginning of man kind until now.
China’s labour shortage problem is spreading, and it’s no longer just the heavily populated coastal regions under threat, according to China Daily.
China is on the brink of taking a big step toward solving its labour shortage problem with one swift law change, according to a report from Citi.
National Geographic has identified the world’s most typical person. It is a 28-year-old Han Chinese male, whose face looks like this:
It’s now official. Japan’s demographic time bomb has gone off. However, don’t look for a big crater, at least just yet, because this has started off with a whimper and not a bang. Inquiring minds note the World’s Biggest Pension Fund May Sell Japan Bonds.
Risk analysis firm Maplecroft just released its new fiscal risk index ranking of 163 countries. Europe trumps all other regions with 11 out of twelve courtiers rated as “extreme risk.” However, quite surprisingly, only one PIIGS country–Italy which takes the top spot–is in the top 12. The others include many big economies in Europe – Belgium (2), France (3), […]
These days everyone is talking about Asian demographics. It’s how we justify why countries like Korea are leaving countries like England in the dust.
Urbanization is obviously one of the big trends in the emerging world, and no country is as synonymous with urbanization as China is.
If demographics is destiny, there’s just no hope!
[credit provider=”BofA/Merrill Lynch”] Bank of America/Merrill Lynch has published a huge report on Asian demographics.In it, the team lead by Sadiq Currimbhoy has published a fantastic set of population “pyramids” that show the way a given population breaks down by age at any given time.
New census data reveals a shocking 6.9 per cent exodus from Chicago in the past decade.Chicago’s population dropped to 2,695,598, only a slightly higher than fourth largest city Houston. The city’s black population fell the most with a 17 per cent decline.
There’s one explosive factor that sets Egypt apart from Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and every other country in the Middle East.
[credit provider=”upyernoz on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/upyernoz/2080548885/”] Let’s say the protesters fail and Hosni Mubarak stays in power. Next year the social pressures will be greater. That’s because today’s riots aren’t about (just) politics or Tunisia or food prices.Egypt is facing a demographic crisis.
[credit provider=”BTIG”] Despite the anemic pace of job creation, December saw a sizable decrease in the headline unemployment rate thanks to a decline in the workforce.A lot of that discussion focused on folks going into early retirement or giving up the search for jobs, but there’s another factor, which is […]
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If you were wondering why the world is losing confidence in its developed portion, this chart makes it abundantly clear.
According to a new Pew study, the Internet surpassed TV as the number one news source for 18-to-29 year olds in the U.S. last year.
The census numbers were a surprise to me. Our population is growing at a much at a much smaller rate than I had thought. Less than 1% per annum, the lowest since the 30s. My first thought was that this was probably not anticipated 10 years ago. So I looked […]
It’s fashionable to compare the US economy to Japan’s, and yes there are some similarities.
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The key story in the 2010 Census is that Republicans won.
Yes, more and more of the American population now lives in red states, and that will benefit the GOP in Congress and Presidential elections.
[credit provider=”Shazron on flickr”] America’s children rate embarrassingly low again on the latest round of scholastic tests from the OECD.The Program for International Student Assessment, which is released every three years, tests 15-year-old students in reading, maths and science.
Although the Commonwealth Games in Delhi ended up more like a joke compared with the Beijing Olympic Games, you cannot ignore the potential of the Indian economy.
President Dmitry Medvedev focused on demographics today in his annual address to the nation, according to Ria Novosti.
Take a look at this awesome video of Professor Hans Rosling talking through the past 200 years, from the BBC.
A few years ago, Malcolm Gladwell wrote an article about the “Irish Miracle”, and chalked the whole economic boom up to favourable demographics.
Have you ever been to a city where a third of the population are senior citizens?
[credit provider=”AP”] Finally, we know who you, our readers, really are.Last month, we posted about a new tool called the Funding Recommendation Engine from research startup ChubbyBrain. The FRE asks you a few quick questions about your company and preferences, then returns a list of VCs and angel investors you […]
We checked in on Irish 10-year yields earlier, but just since then they’ve blown out some more.
Two massive unbalances in China are acting as a check on each other.
China is getting ready to take its most comprehensive census ever of around 1.3 billion people. But don’t worry, it won’t have a major impact Q4 GDP numbers.
[credit provider=”Stuck in Customs on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/sets/72157625069095167/”] Demographics is a big wild-card in Chinese growth projections. The cliche is that thanks to the country’s one-child policy (no longer really enforced), it will be the first country to get old before it gets rich.The head of sovereign wealth fund CIC, Lou […]
I wrote a piece on a federal retirement program that elicited some interesting comments. It was clear to me that there is already a negative bias toward the baby boomers. There is an understanding out there that the boomers are going to be sucking up a great deal of resources […]
Japan is home to the most devastating demographic crunch on the planet with an ageing population hanging over an already damaged economy.
[credit provider=”AP”] There’s been a ton of talk lately about demographics and the coming pension crisis in the US.Getting buzz today is this report from the Milken Institute and authors Perry Wong and I-Ling Shen.
[credit provider=”theaudi0slave via Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/somegeekintn/3709203268/”] Correction: The company did not lower its guidance, but rather narrowed guidance, and actually increased its bottom-end forecast.
Here’s an interesting chart from Deutsche Bank’s latest US Economics/Strategy Weekly report concerning the effect of demographics and retiring boomers on stock market valuations.
The latest from David Rosenberg at Gluskin-Sheff is chock full of bearishness (and bond bullishness, and allusions to Japan, etc.) but this caught our eye:
[credit provider=”commons.wikimedia.org” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Elderly”] A benign CPI reading last week suggested that, by the skin of our teeth, we’re still not experiencing the dreaded “D.”The headline of 0.3% looked plenty inflationary, though excluding food and energy, inflation only registered at 0.1%, and even that’s probably distorted to the upside.
Happy International Youth Day! You probably forgot to buy flowers, but don’t worry, there’s not much to celebrate.
We’ve heard a lot about the lack of female entrepreneurs lately, and now we know just how bad it is. According to a study from CB Insights, a whopping 92% of VC-backed founders are men.CB Insights has published part II of its first Venture Capital Human Capital report, which takes […]
The latest from AAII (via The Pragmatic Capitalist):
[credit provider=”CNBC”] Some good stuff this morning on CNBC from former Tiger Capital manager and Argonaut Capital chief David Gerstenhaber.His most salient point thus far concerns demographics, and the iron-clad maths working against US equities.
It’s no secret that venture-backed entrepreneurs aren’t the most diverse group on the planet, but now there are numbers to back that up.
We’ve talked about Germany’s economic rebound: exports booming, consumer sentiment surging, and corporations thriving. Now, according to data released yesterday, the country is close to having less than 3 million unemployed — and dropping, according to Spiegel.
Eurostat found the early retirement problem in Europe is much worse than it looks (via Edward Harrison).
Bill Gross’s latest investment outlook drops a demographic scare bomb — the world’s population will grow at a slower and slower rate over the next few decades, and this will be a ‘danger’ given that the developed world is deleveraging at the same time.
[credit provider=”Flickr User Aroid (www.flickr.com” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/selago/980565532/)”] Everyone’s talking about a new age of austerity and productivity.But that won’t be easy for a country that prefers lazy consumption: America is the world’s fattest country, getting fatter every year, according to a report from Trust for America’s Health.
Written by Charles Hugh Smith
Japan’s ex-pat population has steadily climbed for decades, continuing through the stagnant but comfortable lost decades. But large numbers of foreigners are finally jumping ship, according to a government survey:
This is a guest post by Gary Peters, a retired geography professor with a long time interest in population issues.
Already outnumbering women by 39 million, Chinese men are now finding it impossible to afford the home necessary to attract a wife.
Edison Research just released its latest report on social network usage, based on polling data from phone calls to a representative sample of 1,753 Americans.
[credit provider=”Shazron on flickr”] Worse than the demographic crisis and resource crisis, America has to deal with a future where the best and brightest children are growing up in another country.Based on international tests endorsed by the US Department of Education, American 15-year-olds score below OECD average on science and […]
This is a post on demographics inspired by a conversation I had earlier today.
[credit provider=”Calvin Community”] America’s demographic problems are well known. But some states are particularly screwed.There’s New England with its Japan-level birth rate. Rural states that leak a steady stream of taxpayers to coast. Retiree swamped states of the South East and the South West.
If anyone can lead Japan out of a crippling demographic crisis, it will be swimsuit model turned politician Renho.
We won’t be the alpha dog in the western hemisphere forever.
This morning the BLS reported an increase of 290,000 jobs. Headline unemployment rose to 9.9%. Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box – Birth Death Model added 188,000 jobs. However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a […]
Don’t miss: 10 countries on the verge of a Demographic crisis >
[credit provider=”iStockphoto”] Last week, the mainstream social media world seemed shocked to read the latest statistics which demonstrated the power of Black and Latino presence and behaviour patterns across social networks such as Facebook and Twitter. In case you were under a rock and missed it: “Social Media Today” reported that […]
New data confirms that Twitter’s population is disproportionately black.
(This guest post comes courtesy of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader)