Markets

China Has Been Testing A Two-Child Policy And It Hasn’t Been Working

[credit provider=”koadmunkee / Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/koadmunkee/6785739070/”] China’s population is rapidly ageing, causing wages to rise due to labour shortages.Leaders in China recognise that this is a major problem, and many agree that the country’s one-child policy is to blame.
China Has Been Testing A Two-Child Policy And It Hasn’t Been Working
Markets

The Worldwide Demographic Cliff Is Going To Be Brutal

[credit provider=”simonhedlin.com” url=”http://simonhedlin.com/2013/01/21/demographic-cliff-ahead/”] THE post-war generation of baby boomers – those born between 1946 and 1964 – have had a huge appetite on the world, creating “youth culture”, changing social attitudes from the sixties onwards, boosting economic growth as they entered the workforce and so on. Now they are starting […]
The Worldwide Demographic Cliff Is Going To Be Brutal
Markets

China Hits A Demographic Turning Point

Two good charts from Morgan Stanley show the demographic challenge facing China, which is on the verge of a turnaround, whereby its dependency ratio (which relates to the number of young people taking care of old people) starts to turn down.
China Hits A Demographic Turning Point
Markets

HARRY DENT: The US Has Gone Over The ‘Demographic Cliff’ And Markets Will Crash This Summer

[credit provider=”CNBC” url=”http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000082392&play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDgyMzkyIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoidFU0ZWRlSEo2clBVVko2SVpUdW04Zz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9″] Harry Dent is not one to shy away from predictions. Just take a quick look at some of the man’s bibliography: he wrote The Great Boom Ahead in 1993 and followed it up with The Great Jobs Ahead in 1995. In 2009, he authored The Great Depression Ahead, and in 2011, The Great […]
HARRY DENT: The US Has Gone Over The ‘Demographic Cliff’ And Markets Will Crash This Summer
Markets

People Are Getting Older Everywhere [Infographic]

This Great Graphic comes from the World Bank.   While we are all familiar with the demographic shock in the high income countries.  For a few years already, Japan is experiencing a shrinking work force and a shrinking population. Part of Europe, such as Italy, does not seem far behind. […]
People Are Getting Older Everywhere [Infographic]
Lifestyle

Electric Car Owners Are Richer And Smarter Than The Average American

[credit provider=”Tesla Motors”] A new study finds that drivers who own or lease electric cars are wealthier and better-educated than the general public.The Electric Vehicle Information Exchange (EVIX), a service of consulting group Oceanus Automotive, released the “Electric Vehicle Survey Panel” this month. The report analyses the behaviour of surveyed […]
Electric Car Owners Are Richer And Smarter Than The Average American
Markets

Goldman Sachs On The Demographic Trend That Could Keep The Housing Market Booming For Years

[credit provider=”Flickr / becstarr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/becstarr/854681739/in/photostream/”] Our big theme these days is the positive tailwind coming from households and household balance sheets.On Sunday we explained the concept of the Balance Sheet Recovery — the idea that releveraging of households will be a positive force for some time to come as the […]
Goldman Sachs On The Demographic Trend That Could Keep The Housing Market Booming For Years
News

Spain’s Population Set To Decline For The First Time In Over 40 Years

[credit provider=”Twitter / @acampadabcn_int” url=”http://www.twitter.com/acampadabcn_int”] New data released by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) shows that the Spanish population will shrink —the first time in just over 40 years, according to the Spanish newspaper El País.Spain’s population currently stands at just over 46 million people, but the Spanish […]
Spain’s Population Set To Decline For The First Time In Over 40 Years
News

Obama Might Have Won The Election, But The GOP Isn’t Dead Yet

[credit provider=”AP Photo/Harry Hamburg”] Like death, taxes, and the sun rising in the east, there is nothing more certain after a presidential election than a swift and usually overwrought round of analysis and advice for the losers.So it is this year for Republicans. If you Google “Republicans Whigs,” and confine […]
Obama Might Have Won The Election, But The GOP Isn’t Dead Yet
News

Republicans May Have To Give Up Fighting Unions

[credit provider=”Walter Hickey / BI”] Growing tensions between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party after the disappointment of Tuesday’s elections are already playing out in Michigan, as it considers becoming the latest Midwestern state to take up anti-union legislation.One bright spot for Republicans Tuesday was the rejection by […]
Republicans May Have To Give Up Fighting Unions
News

Republicans Are STILL In A State Of Denial

[credit provider=”Scott Olson/ Getty Images”] FOR conservatives casting about for comfort, there are plenty of plausible reasons to dismiss talk of a crisis. Mitt Romney could have run a better campaign. He reacted slowly when Barack Obama defined him as a heartless plutocrat, and flip-flopped on policies so frequently that […]
Republicans Are STILL In A State Of Denial
Markets

Investors Shouldn’t Forget That The Whole World Is Getting Older

As we grow and age, our needs and habits often change. The same is true of economies, which grow and change along with their people. Short-term statistics that impact a country’s economic growth rate, such as consumer spending, exports and the like are certainly important, but there are also long-term […]
Investors Shouldn’t Forget That The Whole World Is Getting Older
Markets

AMERICA 2050: Here’s How The Country Will Look Three Decades From Now

[credit provider=”Youtube” url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAKWKfVcd04″] When economists forecast the future, they have to consider one key variable: people.Using charts and info from Pew, the Census, and a Ph.D presentation put together by Elise Barrella & Sara Beck of Georgia Tech, we’ve found some interesting facts about what America will look like in […]
AMERICA 2050: Here’s How The Country Will Look Three Decades From Now
Strategy

INSTANT MBA: You Don’t Need To Know Exactly Who Your Customers Are

[credit provider=”Tze Chun”] Today’s advice comes from Tze Chun, serial entrepreneur, professional dancer and founder of Uprise Art :“Have an idea of who your customers are before you launch, but understand that you may not gain success with those customers and you may gain unexpected success with a couple of different […]
INSTANT MBA: You Don’t Need To Know Exactly Who Your Customers Are
News

Americans Under 55 Are Letting Themselves Get Screwed On Social Security

[credit provider=”Flickr/elevenItaly” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/eleven1967/5777580609/”] I followed what Biden and Ryan had to say about Social Security in their debate. My take on their words:Ryan said four times that his plan was to restructure Social Security.  He said his plan would not involve a sacrifice for anyone who is now 55 or older. Ryan […]
Americans Under 55 Are Letting Themselves Get Screwed On Social Security
News

Putin Makes A Machiavellian Bet On Old People

[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=putin%20gold&showact=results&sort=relevance&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1347471512&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=68442a4b53dc426bb29fdfeb1c707bcf&dbm=PY2011&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] Russian pensions: An unaffordable systemRussia’s prime minister signs a disastrous pension reform
Putin Makes A Machiavellian Bet On Old People
News

Tokyo Population To Halve In The Next 90 Years

[credit provider=”Stuck in Customs on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/4003263235/in/set-72157622598602597″] The population of Tokyo – at present one of the most densely inhabited cities in the world – will fall by half by 2100, with nearly 46 per cent of those residents past retirement age.A study group set up by the Tokyo Metropolitan […]
Tokyo Population To Halve In The Next 90 Years
News

Sweden Will Have To Become A Lot Less Blond

[credit provider=”(Photo by Joern Pollex/Getty Images)”] The Swedish population passed the 9.5m mark during the first half of 2012, and is set to continue growing, according to Statistics Sweden. The population increase was mainly attributable to immigration, although birth rates have also been increasing. The Swedish population is ageing and […]
Sweden Will Have To Become A Lot Less Blond
Lifestyle

Older Americans Are Actually OPTIMISTIC About The Future

[credit provider=”Flickr / brookesb” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/brookebocast/459352368/in/photostream/”] NEW YORK (Reuters) – Baby boomers are upbeat about ageing and expect the next phase of their lives to be better than the last, but many are concerned about their financial future and long-term health costs, a survey released in Tuesday showed.Americans are living healthier […]
Older Americans Are Actually OPTIMISTIC About The Future
News

The Oldest, Youngest, Biggest And Smallest Olympians

[credit provider=”(Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)”] Do you look like an Olympic athlete? If you are aged 26, weigh 72.8kg and are 176.9cm tall then the answer is yes.Thanks to the first comprehensive scrape of every London 2012 Olympic athlete we can create a real picture of what kinds of […]
The Oldest, Youngest, Biggest And Smallest Olympians
Markets

Depressed US Birthrates Are Undermining The Housing Recovery

Boomer demographics and postponement of marriage on account of student debt and poor finances are two of the key reasons that I long-ago stated the housing recovery would be slow for a decade. Declining birthrates now show that is indeed what is happening. First, please consider a short snip from […]
Depressed US Birthrates Are Undermining The Housing Recovery
Markets

HARRY DENT: The ‘Baby Bust’ Is Sending The Dow To 3,000

[credit provider=”CNBC” url=”http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000082392&play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDgyMzkyIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoidFU0ZWRlSEo2clBVVko2SVpUdW04Zz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9″] Harry Dent, the financial newsletter writer and CEO of economic forecasting firm HS Dent, has one of the most bearish calls on stocks we’ve heard in a while.Appearing on CNBC yesterday, Dent explained the demographics-driven thesis behind his Dow 3000 call:
HARRY DENT: The ‘Baby Bust’ Is Sending The Dow To 3,000
Markets

China’s Demographic Perfect Storm Is The Ultimate Growth Killer

Quite a while ago, we became quite interested in the demographics of China.  We noted that working age population will shrink within a few years if not already shrinking, and total population of China is projected to hit the peak within 10 to 15 years. In short, the Chinese population […]
China’s Demographic Perfect Storm Is The Ultimate Growth Killer
Markets

Stunning ‘What If’ Charts Of California’s Pension Shortfall

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) manages pension and health benefits for more than 1.6 million California public employees, retirees, and their families. Its pension plan assumes 7.5% annual growth. For fiscal year ending 2012 CalPERS Reports Preliminary Performance of 1 per cent. How Underfunded is CalPERS? Bear in […]
Stunning ‘What If’ Charts Of California’s Pension Shortfall
News

We’ve Got The ‘Population Problem’ Upside Down

There are a number of issues I want to discuss here at Future Brief, but there is one that is annoying. I hear it constantly raised by so many commentators as a critical issue to our global future and yet it’s a false issue and of no practical use to […]
We’ve Got The ‘Population Problem’ Upside Down
Markets

CITI: The ‘Baby Boom Echo’ Is Going To Be Bigger For Stocks Than The Baby Boom Was

[credit provider=”Bloomberg TV” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/”] Citi’s chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich was on Bloomberg TV this morning discussing his outlook for stocks. Over the long run, he identified a few catalysts that excite him about holding equities once financial conditions improve:We are in a malaise right now; I think that […]
CITI: The ‘Baby Boom Echo’ Is Going To Be Bigger For Stocks Than The Baby Boom Was
News

The Chinese Government Knows Exactly How To Handle The Demographic Crisis

[credit provider=”Feng Li / Getty Images”] China is mulling over a rise in the retirement age, and while that news itself is significant given PRC demographic trends, I find the nature of the debate itself quite a contrast to the U.S. I’ve been finding many, many common U.S.-China themes for […]
The Chinese Government Knows Exactly How To Handle The Demographic Crisis
News

MALTHUS WAS WRONG: The Real Demographic Crisis Involves Debt, Not Food

[credit provider=”en.wikipedia.org” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus”] Truly historic discoveries and therapies are coming online right now that will radically decrease the threat and cost of autoimmune disorders, cancers, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s, arthritis, obesity and diabetes, as well as dangerous influenzas, HIV and other virus-borne diseases. Regular readers know that I’m referring to companies […]
MALTHUS WAS WRONG: The Real Demographic Crisis Involves Debt, Not Food
News

PROFESSOR: The World Is Overpopulated By 5 Billion People

Renowned population analyst Paul Ehrlich has made a terrifying prophecy: If there isn’t a massive reduction of humans and redistribution of natural resources soon, hundreds of thousands of people will die in the future from the lack of these resources in a “die-off”. 
PROFESSOR: The World Is Overpopulated By 5 Billion People
Markets

8 Trends Behind The Plunge In Gasoline Sales

It’s no secret (at least it shouldn’t be) that gasoline sales have plunged. Here is a chart from my April 6 post Another Plunge in 3-Month Rolling Average of Petroleum and Gasoline Usage for Jan, Feb, March 2012 Jan-Feb-March 2012 petroleum and gasoline usage vs. the same three months in […]
8 Trends Behind The Plunge In Gasoline Sales
Markets

The IMF Thinks Governments Are Completely Underestimating The True Costs Of Their ageing Populations

[credit provider=”psmithy” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/psmithy/3083328734/in/photostream/”] A new report from the International Monetary Fund says that advanced economies are underestimating the life-spans of their populations by three years, an error which could create pension shortfalls and increase public debt levels, Dow Jones Newswires reported.”If everyone in 2050 lived just three years longer than […]
The IMF Thinks Governments Are Completely Underestimating The True Costs Of Their ageing Populations
Markets

Demographics Make Chinese Rebalancing Even More Impossible

[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=china%20elderly&showact=results&sort=creationdatelower%3Areversealphabetical&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1320866496&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=1d0488a65a274be3af1135a3f60bbc2a&dbm=PY2011&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] Readers who are familiar with the analysis I have had here would be familiar with the view that either rebalancing of Chinese economy has not started, or even if it has started (or will start soon), the outcome will be slow growth. As always, I tend […]
Demographics Make Chinese Rebalancing Even More Impossible
Markets

Betting On The Yen To Win The Race To The Bottom

On Monday and Tuesday the market’s attention will be on the USA and the negative economic implications of the Nonfarm payroll (NFP) miss. Market eyes will also be focused on the bond markets in Italy and Spain. As of last Thursday, Europe seemed to be on the verge of another […]
Betting On The Yen To Win The Race To The Bottom
News

15 Fascinating Facts About The Majority Of Americans

[credit provider=”Map by Jasper Johns (1961)” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jasper_Johns%27s_%27Map%27,_1961.jpg”] As divisive as things get these days, it’s easy to lose track of who the average American really is.Based on Census data, Pew and Gallup polls and more, we’ve identified some simple facts that are true about the majority of the 311,591,917 Americans.
15 Fascinating Facts About The Majority Of Americans
Strategy

Find A Job Using The Same Skills That Build Great Tech Companies

[credit provider=”Trevor Owens”] Disruptive innovators ask the right questions, observe the world like anthropologists, network for novel ideas, and experiment to make things work. (For a more detailed look at these skills, see The Innovator’s DNA).Applying the skills disruptive innovators use to your job search can help you unearth more, and better, […]
Find A Job Using The Same Skills That Build Great Tech Companies
Markets

Simple maths Shows That China’s ageing ‘Crisis’ Is Overblown

The Washington Post is absolutely obsessed with the costs of an ageing population and it refuses to let arithmetic stand in the way. Today it ran an editorial complaining about China’s “premature social ageing process, saddling China with a large dependent elderly population before it’s truly rich enough to support […]
Simple maths Shows That China’s ageing ‘Crisis’ Is Overblown
Strategy

Why It’s ‘Cool’ To Work Into Old Age

[credit provider=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/rolymo/” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/rolymo/”] At the core of this week’s economic news – President Obama’s fiscal 2013 budget and the Greek debt bailout  – is a political unwillingness to be honest about the changes needed to our social welfare contract, something that was created literally in an earlier century. Today, neither the […]
Why It’s ‘Cool’ To Work Into Old Age
Markets

Baby Boomers And The Decline In The labour Force Participation Rate

The declining labour force participation rate has been the topic of some debate.  I have argued that the declining rate is the result of the beginning of the baby boomers retiring, while other have argued it’s the result of the recent recession.  The Chicago Fed has weighed in with a […]
Baby Boomers And The Decline In The labour Force Participation Rate
News

The Japanese Government Has A Shocking Forecast For National Population Shrinkage

[credit provider=”Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/olemiswebs/2903821153/”] You knew that there wasn’t much population growth in Japan, but the extent to which the population is expected to shrink will stun you..AFP reports that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research predicts the Japanese population will shrink by two thirds (!) by 2110. […]
The Japanese Government Has A Shocking Forecast For National Population Shrinkage
News

Unsustainable Population Growth Is The Elephant In The Room

“In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9% per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.” says Professor Stephen Hawking as reported […]
Unsustainable Population Growth Is The Elephant In The Room
Markets

Two Huge Differences Between The US And Japan

An article by Eamonn Fingleton in Sunday’s New York Times argues that the great multi-decade Japan bust is overstated, and that it really hasn’t been that bad at all, contrary to ongoing talk of its demise.
Two Huge Differences Between The US And Japan
Markets

PRESENTING: The Invisible Force That’s Saving The US Economy

In talking about markets or economics, we tend to use fairly small numbers. For example, in a given quarter, economists might estimate GDP to come in at 2.5% (a small number), and then everyone freaks out when it only comes in at 2.0% (a difference of just 0.5%, an even […]
PRESENTING: The Invisible Force That’s Saving The US Economy
Markets

By The Numbers: A Complete Look At China’s Gargantuan Population

[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=china%20performance&showact=results&sort=creationdatelower%3Areversealphabetical&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1320877849&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=d66a489aece54d57a03b67fb5bb64bb8&dbm=PY2010&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] The world’s most populous nation is in the middle of a massive demographic change.Its one-child policy, aimed at controlling population growth, has sparked a whole set of problems.
By The Numbers: A Complete Look At China’s Gargantuan Population
Markets

This Is The China Chart That Scares Us The Most…

China’s one-child policy has created two major demographic risks for the country. The one that gets more attention is its ageing population, which is causing the workforce to shrink. Moreover, China’s rapidly ageing population is putting pressure on the country’s health and pension systems.
This Is The China Chart That Scares Us The Most…
News

Nick Kristof Is Wrong About The Wonders Of Birth Control

It should be no surprise that the (supposed) arrival of the 7 billionth person on the planet has brought the Malthusian doom-mongers out of the woodwork, bringing with them dire warnings about the negative effects of all these darned people everywhere.
Nick Kristof Is Wrong About The Wonders Of Birth Control
Markets

A Vivid Look At ageing Baby Boomers, And How Demographics Will Look In The Year 2041

[credit provider=”Advisor Perspectives” url=”http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/census/pyramids/US-pyramids.html?US-boomers-2020s.gif”] You’ve almost certainly heard before the line that “demographics is destiny” when it comes to the economy, and there’s plenty of evidence that age demographics play a big role in stock market valuations.So what’s next for the US?
A Vivid Look At ageing Baby Boomers, And How Demographics Will Look In The Year 2041
Markets

Boomer Demographics: The Big Shift Ahead

Last week I spoke at the Retirement Industry Income Association (RIIA) Fall Conference on the topic Dynamics of the New Normal. Several of the slides in my PowerPoint presentation featured subjects that I routinely address at this website: secular market trends, consumer confidence, employment levels, household incomes, etc. But the […]
Boomer Demographics: The Big Shift Ahead
Markets

Every Age Group Is Getting Poorer In America, Except For One

Last week I updated my commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau’s release of the 2010 data. My focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 43-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into […]
Every Age Group Is Getting Poorer In America, Except For One