The new campaign has hashtags and everything!
It's a white, white world.
It's also more popular among old people.
"Dorms to diplomas."
If the GOP can’t keep Texas red, then it’s really hard to imagine the party being competitive in a national Presidential election.
Probably the two most-cited economic problems in the U.S. are: Long-term demographic headwinds, and U.S. unemployment.
The US Census Bureau just published this great infographic showing the evolution of America’s foreign-born population. Check it out.
[credit provider=”Flickr / breezy421″ url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/breezy421/4892362165/in/photostream/”] The Great Recession may have delayed the plans of many recent college graduates.But the “Echo Boom” generation — the sons and daughters of Baby Boomers — are too numerous to be kept down.
1 in 7 households in the U.S. is headed by someone that was not a U.S. citizen at birth, according to latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This includes homes that are both owned or rented.
[credit provider=”koadmunkee / Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/koadmunkee/6785739070/”] China’s population is rapidly ageing, causing wages to rise due to labour shortages.Leaders in China recognise that this is a major problem, and many agree that the country’s one-child policy is to blame.
[credit provider=”simonhedlin.com” url=”http://simonhedlin.com/2013/01/21/demographic-cliff-ahead/”] THE post-war generation of baby boomers – those born between 1946 and 1964 – have had a huge appetite on the world, creating “youth culture”, changing social attitudes from the sixties onwards, boosting economic growth as they entered the workforce and so on. Now they are starting […]
[credit provider=”Dr. Ed’s Blog”] For argument’s sake, let’s assume that single people on average tend to be more self-absorbed than married people. That’s a conjecture, not a criticism. More specifically, I am assuming that singles care more about their own wellbeing than about the next generation, which is less the […]
Penske, the US-based truck leasing giant, has released its 2012 list of most popular moving destinations.
Two good charts from Morgan Stanley show the demographic challenge facing China, which is on the verge of a turnaround, whereby its dependency ratio (which relates to the number of young people taking care of old people) starts to turn down.
[credit provider=”CNBC” url=”http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000082392&play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDgyMzkyIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoidFU0ZWRlSEo2clBVVko2SVpUdW04Zz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9″] Harry Dent is not one to shy away from predictions. Just take a quick look at some of the man’s bibliography: he wrote The Great Boom Ahead in 1993 and followed it up with The Great Jobs Ahead in 1995. In 2009, he authored The Great Depression Ahead, and in 2011, The Great […]
Washington DC led the country in net inward migration for the 7th-consecutive year, according to Atlas Vans’ annual U.S. and Canada moving trends map (via Catherine Rampell).
This Great Graphic comes from the World Bank. While we are all familiar with the demographic shock in the high income countries. For a few years already, Japan is experiencing a shrinking work force and a shrinking population. Part of Europe, such as Italy, does not seem far behind. […]
[credit provider=”paparutzi / Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/paparutzi/1062532768/”] Here are some quick stats from the Census: Census Bureau Projects U.S. Population of 315.1 Million on New Year’s Day As our nation prepares to begin the new year, the U.S. Census Bureau today projected that on Jan. 1, 2013, the total United States population […]
[credit provider=”Robert Johnson — Business Insider” url=”http://www.businessinsider.com.au/author/robert-johnson”] The Census Bureau just unveiled the latest updates to state by state population trends.The data looks at what happened to the United States between July 1, 2011 to July 1, 2012.
“If two people are dying from liver disease, one 25, the other 65, and there’s only one liver available for transplant, the old one dies.”
Citi’s Global Head of Credit Strategy, Matt King, has a knack for putting together useful illustrations.
[credit provider=”Tesla Motors”] A new study finds that drivers who own or lease electric cars are wealthier and better-educated than the general public.The Electric Vehicle Information Exchange (EVIX), a service of consulting group Oceanus Automotive, released the “Electric Vehicle Survey Panel” this month. The report analyses the behaviour of surveyed […]
[credit provider=”Flickr / becstarr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/becstarr/854681739/in/photostream/”] Our big theme these days is the positive tailwind coming from households and household balance sheets.On Sunday we explained the concept of the Balance Sheet Recovery — the idea that releveraging of households will be a positive force for some time to come as the […]
[credit provider=”Twitter / @acampadabcn_int” url=”http://www.twitter.com/acampadabcn_int”] New data released by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) shows that the Spanish population will shrink —the first time in just over 40 years, according to the Spanish newspaper El País.Spain’s population currently stands at just over 46 million people, but the Spanish […]
[credit provider=”AP Photo/Harry Hamburg”] Like death, taxes, and the sun rising in the east, there is nothing more certain after a presidential election than a swift and usually overwrought round of analysis and advice for the losers.So it is this year for Republicans. If you Google “Republicans Whigs,” and confine […]
[credit provider=”Walter Hickey / BI”] Growing tensions between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party after the disappointment of Tuesday’s elections are already playing out in Michigan, as it considers becoming the latest Midwestern state to take up anti-union legislation.One bright spot for Republicans Tuesday was the rejection by […]
[credit provider=”Scott Olson/ Getty Images”] FOR conservatives casting about for comfort, there are plenty of plausible reasons to dismiss talk of a crisis. Mitt Romney could have run a better campaign. He reacted slowly when Barack Obama defined him as a heartless plutocrat, and flip-flopped on policies so frequently that […]
As we grow and age, our needs and habits often change. The same is true of economies, which grow and change along with their people. Short-term statistics that impact a country’s economic growth rate, such as consumer spending, exports and the like are certainly important, but there are also long-term […]
It is a well known fact that homeownership in the US has been on a decline, a trend that started even before the financial crisis. Now Moody’s predicts this trend will begin reversing next year.
[credit provider=”Youtube” url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAKWKfVcd04″] When economists forecast the future, they have to consider one key variable: people.Using charts and info from Pew, the Census, and a Ph.D presentation put together by Elise Barrella & Sara Beck of Georgia Tech, we’ve found some interesting facts about what America will look like in […]
[credit provider=”Tze Chun”] Today’s advice comes from Tze Chun, serial entrepreneur, professional dancer and founder of Uprise Art :“Have an idea of who your customers are before you launch, but understand that you may not gain success with those customers and you may gain unexpected success with a couple of different […]
[credit provider=”Flickr/elevenItaly” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/eleven1967/5777580609/”] I followed what Biden and Ryan had to say about Social Security in their debate. My take on their words:Ryan said four times that his plan was to restructure Social Security. He said his plan would not involve a sacrifice for anyone who is now 55 or older. Ryan […]
The Ponzi schemes and off-balance sheet loans in China’s banking system are in the forefront of today’s news. Reuters reports Bank of China executive warns of shadow banking risks
Why Foxconn is so unlucky is unclear to us.
[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=putin%20gold&showact=results&sort=relevance&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1347471512&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=68442a4b53dc426bb29fdfeb1c707bcf&dbm=PY2011&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] Russian pensions: An unaffordable systemRussia’s prime minister signs a disastrous pension reform
Investors and strategists mostly have mixed feelings about the short-term outlook for the markets and economy.
[credit provider=”Stuck in Customs on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/4003263235/in/set-72157622598602597″] The population of Tokyo – at present one of the most densely inhabited cities in the world – will fall by half by 2100, with nearly 46 per cent of those residents past retirement age.A study group set up by the Tokyo Metropolitan […]
Here are some interesting stats courtesy of Jon Maddux, CEO of You Walk Away.
[credit provider=”(Photo by Joern Pollex/Getty Images)”] The Swedish population passed the 9.5m mark during the first half of 2012, and is set to continue growing, according to Statistics Sweden. The population increase was mainly attributable to immigration, although birth rates have also been increasing. The Swedish population is ageing and […]
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass made a fortune shorting housing during the financial crisis, and over the last few years we’ve been watching him try to bag another huge score in the form of a bet that Japan would experience a financial crisis.
[credit provider=”Flickr / brookesb” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/brookebocast/459352368/in/photostream/”] NEW YORK (Reuters) – Baby boomers are upbeat about ageing and expect the next phase of their lives to be better than the last, but many are concerned about their financial future and long-term health costs, a survey released in Tuesday showed.Americans are living healthier […]
[credit provider=”Flickr/Phillipe Put” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]
/5977896751/”] Singapore needs more babies. A lot more. The birth rate in the country has been declining for some time, and the number of baby-boomers hitting 65 is rising every year. Worse still, is the fact that some 44.2 per cent of men and 31 per cent […]
[credit provider=”(Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)”] Do you look like an Olympic athlete? If you are aged 26, weigh 72.8kg and are 176.9cm tall then the answer is yes.Thanks to the first comprehensive scrape of every London 2012 Olympic athlete we can create a real picture of what kinds of […]
Boomer demographics and postponement of marriage on account of student debt and poor finances are two of the key reasons that I long-ago stated the housing recovery would be slow for a decade. Declining birthrates now show that is indeed what is happening. First, please consider a short snip from […]
[credit provider=”CNBC” url=”http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000082392&play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDgyMzkyIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoidFU0ZWRlSEo2clBVVko2SVpUdW04Zz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9″] Harry Dent, the financial newsletter writer and CEO of economic forecasting firm HS Dent, has one of the most bearish calls on stocks we’ve heard in a while.Appearing on CNBC yesterday, Dent explained the demographics-driven thesis behind his Dow 3000 call:
Here is what we know about the global economy given the experiences of the past four years:
Quite a while ago, we became quite interested in the demographics of China. We noted that working age population will shrink within a few years if not already shrinking, and total population of China is projected to hit the peak within 10 to 15 years. In short, the Chinese population […]
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) manages pension and health benefits for more than 1.6 million California public employees, retirees, and their families. Its pension plan assumes 7.5% annual growth. For fiscal year ending 2012 CalPERS Reports Preliminary Performance of 1 per cent. How Underfunded is CalPERS? Bear in […]
Here is a chart from reader Tim Wallace showing social security and disability stats for June of 2012 compared to June in prior years.
Astrologer Susan Miller says that the people who check their horoscopes are more educated than anyone expects.
There are a number of issues I want to discuss here at Future Brief, but there is one that is annoying. I hear it constantly raised by so many commentators as a critical issue to our global future and yet it’s a false issue and of no practical use to […]
From BBVA Research:
[credit provider=”Bloomberg TV” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/”] Citi’s chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich was on Bloomberg TV this morning discussing his outlook for stocks. Over the long run, he identified a few catalysts that excite him about holding equities once financial conditions improve:We are in a malaise right now; I think that […]
[credit provider=”Feng Li / Getty Images”] China is mulling over a rise in the retirement age, and while that news itself is significant given PRC demographic trends, I find the nature of the debate itself quite a contrast to the U.S. I’ve been finding many, many common U.S.-China themes for […]
What’s the real story with the changing age distribution of working Americans over the previous five years? We’ve previously shown that large declines in the working population of the U.S. has taken place across all age groups, but how much of that might be considered to be normal, such as […]
[credit provider=”en.wikipedia.org” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus”] Truly historic discoveries and therapies are coming online right now that will radically decrease the threat and cost of autoimmune disorders, cancers, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s, arthritis, obesity and diabetes, as well as dangerous influenzas, HIV and other virus-borne diseases. Regular readers know that I’m referring to companies […]
Renowned population analyst Paul Ehrlich has made a terrifying prophecy: If there isn’t a massive reduction of humans and redistribution of natural resources soon, hundreds of thousands of people will die in the future from the lack of these resources in a “die-off”.
[credit provider=”Ray_from_LA on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]
/4569094679/”] What are the three demographic groups whose electoral impact is growing fastest? Hispanics, women, and young people. Who are Republicans pissing off the most? Latinos, women, and young people.It’s almost as if the GOP can’t help itself.
It’s no secret (at least it shouldn’t be) that gasoline sales have plunged. Here is a chart from my April 6 post Another Plunge in 3-Month Rolling Average of Petroleum and Gasoline Usage for Jan, Feb, March 2012 Jan-Feb-March 2012 petroleum and gasoline usage vs. the same three months in […]
[credit provider=”psmithy” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/psmithy/3083328734/in/photostream/”] A new report from the International Monetary Fund says that advanced economies are underestimating the life-spans of their populations by three years, an error which could create pension shortfalls and increase public debt levels, Dow Jones Newswires reported.”If everyone in 2050 lived just three years longer than […]
[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=china%20elderly&showact=results&sort=creationdatelower%3Areversealphabetical&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1320866496&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=1d0488a65a274be3af1135a3f60bbc2a&dbm=PY2011&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] Readers who are familiar with the analysis I have had here would be familiar with the view that either rebalancing of Chinese economy has not started, or even if it has started (or will start soon), the outcome will be slow growth. As always, I tend […]
On Monday and Tuesday the market’s attention will be on the USA and the negative economic implications of the Nonfarm payroll (NFP) miss. Market eyes will also be focused on the bond markets in Italy and Spain. As of last Thursday, Europe seemed to be on the verge of another […]
John Mauldin pinged me with a question on jobs and demographics from one of his readers.
[credit provider=”JaviC on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/javic/3611069857/”] A big report is out on the importance of Route 66, which John Steinbeck dubbed America’s “mother road.”
US demographics are frequently cited as part of the bear case on stocks.
In the last few days there have been a litany of articles written both in favour of and against Paul Ryan’s proposed budgetary plan (See here, here, here, here).
[credit provider=”Map by Jasper Johns (1961)” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jasper_Johns%27s_%27Map%27,_1961.jpg”] As divisive as things get these days, it’s easy to lose track of who the average American really is.Based on Census data, Pew and Gallup polls and more, we’ve identified some simple facts that are true about the majority of the 311,591,917 Americans.
[credit provider=”Trevor Owens”] Disruptive innovators ask the right questions, observe the world like anthropologists, network for novel ideas, and experiment to make things work. (For a more detailed look at these skills, see The Innovator’s DNA).Applying the skills disruptive innovators use to your job search can help you unearth more, and better, […]
From Barclays, a great breakdown of unemployment, and the impact of declining workforce participation.
For quite a while I’ve been explaining the rabid, frantic vehemence of tea partiers and Republicans in general with a single visualisation:
The Washington Post is absolutely obsessed with the costs of an ageing population and it refuses to let arithmetic stand in the way. Today it ran an editorial complaining about China’s “premature social ageing process, saddling China with a large dependent elderly population before it’s truly rich enough to support […]
With the earth having recently passed 7 billion people, and oil zooming back up again, the amount of whining about overpopulation and resource scarcity has hit a fever pitch again.
[credit provider=”YouTube”] Doomsayers like to argue that the US faces fiscal Armageddon because of all the obligations to retirees that will come due in the coming years.So it’s insane to buy US debt then, right?
[credit provider=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/rolymo/” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/rolymo/”] At the core of this week’s economic news – President Obama’s fiscal 2013 budget and the Greek debt bailout – is a political unwillingness to be honest about the changes needed to our social welfare contract, something that was created literally in an earlier century. Today, neither the […]
Last October I posted a commentary, Libya, Ghaddafi and the Arab Spring, shortly after Ghaddafi’s death at the hands of the Libyan National Liberation Army. It was the third major Arab regime to be overthrown in 2011.
The declining labour force participation rate has been the topic of some debate. I have argued that the declining rate is the result of the beginning of the baby boomers retiring, while other have argued it’s the result of the recent recession. The Chicago Fed has weighed in with a […]
[credit provider=”Bikoy on flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/bikoy/2148711121/”] You’ll meet all kinds of people in the Big Apple.We decided to track down some interesting statistics about those 8 million New Yorkers plus 49 million annual tourists.
[credit provider=”Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/olemiswebs/2903821153/”] You knew that there wasn’t much population growth in Japan, but the extent to which the population is expected to shrink will stun you..AFP reports that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research predicts the Japanese population will shrink by two thirds (!) by 2110. […]
If you’re just tuning in, this weekend we’ve been debating whether or not Obama should be judged against Reagan in terms of the strength of their respective economic recoveries.
Demographer Harry Dent was recently a featured guest on Bloomberg TV in an interview that was promoted with the frightening tease “S&P 500 to Fall 30-50% in 2012.” See the video clip below for the complete interview.
“In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9% per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.” says Professor Stephen Hawking as reported […]
An article by Eamonn Fingleton in Sunday’s New York Times argues that the great multi-decade Japan bust is overstated, and that it really hasn’t been that bad at all, contrary to ongoing talk of its demise.
More and more, we’ve been hearing about how the U.S. economy has pretty good fundamentals relative to the rest of the world.
From Goldman Sachs, some interesting perspective on demographics.
In talking about markets or economics, we tend to use fairly small numbers. For example, in a given quarter, economists might estimate GDP to come in at 2.5% (a small number), and then everyone freaks out when it only comes in at 2.0% (a difference of just 0.5%, an even […]
At around this time over the past few years I’ve written about the posh holiday parties I went to. No luck this year. I went from the A-list to the Shit-list (I blame the blogging). So instead of eating fancy canapés and talking with very important people, I went and […]
Yesterday someone sent me a column from John Mauldin that had the following graph.
If demography is destiny, the Democratic Party could be facing big trouble.
[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=china%20performance&showact=results&sort=creationdatelower%3Areversealphabetical&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1320877849&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=d66a489aece54d57a03b67fb5bb64bb8&dbm=PY2010&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] The world’s most populous nation is in the middle of a massive demographic change.Its one-child policy, aimed at controlling population growth, has sparked a whole set of problems.
China’s one-child policy has created two major demographic risks for the country. The one that gets more attention is its ageing population, which is causing the workforce to shrink. Moreover, China’s rapidly ageing population is putting pressure on the country’s health and pension systems.
by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad
It should be no surprise that the (supposed) arrival of the 7 billionth person on the planet has brought the Malthusian doom-mongers out of the woodwork, bringing with them dire warnings about the negative effects of all these darned people everywhere.
Digging through some old IMF publications last night we came across this little nugget of data on global demographic trends that really caught us by surprise.
While the US and Europe have remained fixated on the simmering sovereign debt crisis in Euroland, the Arab world has been experiencing waves of demonstrations, protests and civil wars that have seen the fall of three major regimes thus far in 2011, with several others struggling to find equilibrium.
[credit provider=”Advisor Perspectives” url=”http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/census/pyramids/US-pyramids.html?US-boomers-2020s.gif”] You’ve almost certainly heard before the line that “demographics is destiny” when it comes to the economy, and there’s plenty of evidence that age demographics play a big role in stock market valuations.So what’s next for the US?
Last week I spoke at the Retirement Industry Income Association (RIIA) Fall Conference on the topic Dynamics of the New Normal. Several of the slides in my PowerPoint presentation featured subjects that I routinely address at this website: secular market trends, consumer confidence, employment levels, household incomes, etc. But the […]
Last week I updated my commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau’s release of the 2010 data. My focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 43-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into […]
Standard & Poor’s downgrade yesterday of Italy’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings came as no surprise to anyone who follows the Italian stock market.