Markets

Why You Should Never Take The Initial Monthly Jobs Report Seriously

Earlier today I posted a commentary on Some Stunning Demographic Trends in Employment. In a footnote I commented on the unreliability of the Bureau of labour Statistics’ employment data for Nonfarm Payroll Employment, which included a link to historic revisions back to 1979 on the BLS website. I subsequently received […]
Why You Should Never Take The Initial Monthly Jobs Report Seriously
Markets

Economists Can Learn Something From Season 3 Of ‘Downton Abbey’

Economists warn that the U.S. economy could be heading toward one of two catastrophes: the two-decade long stagnation that has befallen Japan, or the hyperinflation that struck Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic.  Such cautionary tales alert policymakers to the failed efforts of their predecessors.  But the most relevant comparison is […]
Economists Can Learn Something From Season 3 Of ‘Downton Abbey’
Markets

US Vehicle Miles Driven Have Sunk To A New Post-Crisis Low

The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through December. Travel on all roads and streets changed by -2.9% (-7.0 billion vehicle miles) for December 2012 as compared with December 2011. The 12-month moving average of miles driven increased only 0.34% […]
US Vehicle Miles Driven Have Sunk To A New Post-Crisis Low
Markets

However Wrong ECRI Might Have Been, Recession Risk Remains

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped again in today’s update. It is now at 129.1 versus the previous week’s 129.7 (revised from 129.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now at 7.6, down […]
However Wrong ECRI Might Have Been, Recession Risk Remains
Markets

Warren Buffett And The Value Investors Can’t Seem To Beat This Market

[credit provider=”CBS News” url=”http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505383_162-57373393/person-to-person-warren-buffett/”] While the U.S. equity market has performed exceptionally well since its bottom in March 2009, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has trailed the index by nearly 6%.  Buffett is among a number of prominent classic-value investors who have fared poorly over this period.  Over long time horizons, […]
Warren Buffett And The Value Investors Can’t Seem To Beat This Market
Markets

The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators

Note from dshort: This commentary has been revised to include the latest Industrial Production data released today. I’ve not yet included an update for the January Real Retail Sales data, released earlier this week, because the January CPI used to calculate the number won’t be available until next Thursday.
The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators
Markets

According To ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week’s upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at […]
According To ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession
Markets

50 Economists’ Forecasts For Wednesday’s GDP Report

A big economic announcement this week will be tomorrow’s Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final number for Q3 GDP was 3.1%. The general consensus is that Q4 will show a significant decline in this broad measure of the economy. Investing.com weighs in at […]
50 Economists’ Forecasts For Wednesday’s GDP Report
Markets

Lakshman Achuthan’s Imaginary Recession Is Now In Its Seventh Month

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week’s 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) […]
Lakshman Achuthan’s Imaginary Recession Is Now In Its Seventh Month