Good news on the housing front remains extremely rare. So we’re going to take what we can get.
The rate of year-over-year price decline in November in one of the two Case Shiller indices matched last month’s rate of decline: 19.1%. This is the first time since prices started falling that the year-over-year rate of decline did not accelerate.
Believe it or not, this is the first sign of a turn in the housing market. Before prices can start rising again, they have to stop declining, and before they can stop declining, the rate of decline has to stop accelerating. And in the 10-City index, it has now done that!
The bad news: The 20-City index accelerated again, to 18.2%. And price declines will take a long time to trough (probably years.) So we’re still headed for a peak to trough decline of 35%-40%.
Here’s the whole release:
The whold dataset is embedded below: