The fallout from a 2005 leaked tape of Donald Trump boasting about his sexual exploits with women continued to dominate the news cycle on Tuesday.
And it had many people asking: Can Trump still win the election?
In fact, on Tuesday morning, it was the top question trending on Google.
The short answer is yes, Trump could still win the election. But his chances are quickly diminishing.
On FiveThirtyEight, the data-journalism website run by renowned statistician Nate Silver, Trump has a less-than 20% chance of winning in November in all three of his election forecasts. In the “Now-cast,” which is based on if the election were held today, Trump is down to just an 11.8% chance of winning the presidency.
From Friday, when the story broke, through Tuesday, Trump went from trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics two-way polling average by 4.7 points to 6.5 points.
In the four-way average, which includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton went from holding a 3.2-point lead to a 5-point lead, which peaked at 5.2 points on Monday. That was Clinton’s largest lead in the four-way average this cycle.
Trump’s latest troubles came as prominent Republican lawmakers across the country condemned or unendorsed the Manhattan billionaire following the leaked tape, which had Trump saying a litany of crude sexual remarks about women.
Trump has begun fighting back. He slammed House Speaker Paul Ryan, who told House Republicans he’s done defending Trump, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who withdrew his endorsement over the weekend.
Polls also showed that viewers felt Clinton bested Trump in the second presidential debate on Sunday.
But, looking at the RCP two-way polling average, the past two times Trump fell this far behind Clinton, he needed between 25 and 30 days to get back to a virtual tie with the former secretary of state.
There are 28 days left until the election.
View Trump’s polling below:
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