Can Anyone Predict Which Movies Will Make Money?

John Carter

predict box office:

Felix Ming Fai Wong and pals at Princeton University in New Jersey, pour cold water on the idea that Twitter is a reliable predictor of the future, at least as far as the success of movies is concerned… the Twitter data does not always translate into box office revenue (although in some cases it can).

“Marketers need to be careful about drawing conclusions regarding the net box-office outcome for a movie,” conclude Wong and co.

Who can? The Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Via Secrets of the Moneylab: How behavioural Economics Can Improve Your Business:

In one study by Harvard Business School professor Anita Elberse, the correlation HSX prices and actual box-office receipts was .942—a stunning degree of predictive accuracy for an industry that’s notoriously unpredictable.

Oh, and in case you were curious: yes, movies are getting worse.

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