PRESENTING: Byron Wien's 10 Predictions For 2012

byron wien blackstoneByron Wien

Photo: CNBC

Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien is out with his highly anticipated list of 2012 surprises.The predictions run the gamut, from a renewed Arab Spring to a revitalized American Economy. He even weighs in on the Euro debate.

This is the 27th year Wien has produced the list, which he started while chief strategist at Morgan Stanley in 1986.

He notes that any given prediction has only a 50% likelihood of occurring. Last year that was the case when he predicted an improved housing picture and gold topping $1,600 an ounce.

Oil prices decline to $85 a barrel

As shale gains greater shale, the price of oil drops to $85 a barrel and the U.S. becomes less dependent on the Middle East. Supplies in Poland and the Ukraine prove promising and production increases in Libya.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

The S&P 500 heads above 1400

Earnings continue to grow at American corporates, with leaders taking advantage of reduced commodity prices and greater technological integration decreasing labour costs. Together, it pushes the S&P 500 over 1400.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment drops below 8%

The U.S. economy finally takes off as real GDP accelerates 3% and unemployment falls below 8%. A double dip recession and fears of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Consumers drive the economy and exports do considerably well.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Obama runs against Romney in 2012

An improving economy helps President Obama change the current rhetoric in Washington and paint himself in a better light. Romney is the Republican nominee, but is viewed as lackluster. Democrats win the House of Representatives, but Republicans reclaim the Senate.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Europe finally develops a long-lasting plan

After years of difficulty and austerity cuts, the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, European Financial Stability Facility and European Union work together to stop disbandment from the union and keep the Euro as the main currency. Greece restructures, Spain and Ireland right themselves, and Italy voluntarily restructures.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

The computer becomes the new weapon of choice

The computer becomes the new weapon of choice for terrorists. Eastern European and Asian hackers find their way into the data centres of major financial powers, causing short-term bank closings. The G-20 meets to solve the problem.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Investors go long on currencies of prudent governments

Investors shift currency buys to Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Congress finds a way to cut $1.2 trillion over 10 years

Congress, after years of malaise, decides that its partisan ways are hurting the country and finally finishes the tasks the Super Committee failed to do. defence and Medicare are scaled back, subsidies for agriculture are cut and tax deductions are modified. Obama promises to let part of the Bush tax cuts continue if reelected.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

The Arab Spring finally matures

Bashar al-Assad's rule of Syria finally comes to conclusion when the Arab Spring gains greater traction. The ripple effects weaken Hamas and Hezbollah, while weakening Iran.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Emerging markets appreciate some 15 to 20%

Even as emerging market economies slow somewhat from their heyday, indexes in Brazil, China and India gain more than 15%.

Source: Byron Wien, Blackstone

Blackstone's Byron Wien Predicted 10 Surprises For 2011, Here's How He Did

Those are his 2012 predictions.
Click here to see how he did in 2011 >

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