Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may reach 1,500 this year as the economy picks up momentum in the fourth quarter, according to Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services unit.”Housing is bottoming, gasoline is down from the beginning of the year, 90 per cent of the people in the country have jobs,” Wien said in an interview this morning on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” show. “The European situation is getting better, not resolved, but getting better. The fiscal cliff will be deferred,” he said, referring to higher taxes and spending cuts that will take effect at year-end unless Congress acts. “There will be more good news than bad.”
Wien’s prediction implies a 6.8 per cent rally in the S&P 500 from yesterday’s closing level of 1,403.93. The index is up about 12 per cent this year amid speculation central banks will continue to support the global economic recovery if needed.
Wien has been making annual forecasts since 1986, when he was chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley. His average score is five out of 10, he said in a Blackstone webcast in January.
Wien predicted a rally in stocks regardless of who wins the presidential election in November, but he said the gains will be bigger if Republican Mitt Romney prevails.
–Editors: Steve Chambers, Michael P. Regan
To contact the reporters on this story: Julia Leite in New York at [email protected]; Deirdre Bolton in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at [email protected]