Everyone's Noticing The Biggest Dichotomy In The US Economy

Vineyard, North Fork, Long Island

Photo: Macari Vineyard/Eric Schnakenberg

This is something that we’ve written about a lot, and now we’re seeing it in Dan Greenhaus of BTIG’s nightly note:On a side note regarding today’s better than expected retail report, an interesting dichotomy is unfolding. On the one hand, consumers are spending more and their confidence is rising. On the other, businesses are investing less and CEO confidence is hardly encouraging. We imagine the difference has something to do with the fiscal cliff. After all, consumers are responding to stability in home prices and the pickup in equity prices while CEO’s and businesses remain focused on the potential for a policy mistake coming out of Washington. We’ve seen this manifest itself in numerous places and we imagine this recent divergence speaks to the two constituencies.

This is close to becoming conventional wisdom.

Housing is buoying consumers. The fiscal cliff is worrying businesses. If the latter can be resolved, it could be a big shot in the arm.

For more on this split, read here >

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