Three months ago, eMarketer estimated that US online advertising would total $28.4 billion in 2009 (down from $30 billion in March). Now eMarketer has cut its forecast by 10%, to $25.7 billion. In another three months, we expect eMarketer’s outlook will have been cut significantly yet again:
AP: EMarketer’s new advertising estimates represent an even bigger comedown from another projection the firm made in March. Back then, eMarketer predicted Internet ad spending in the United States would hit $30 billion for the first time in 2009.
Although it’s not as optimistic now, eMarketer still expects the Internet ad market to grow by 9 per cent next year. That would represent a slowdown from an 11 per cent increase projected by eMarketer for this year.
Google should remain the biggest beneficiary because its system for showing ads next to search results is expected to remain an effective marketing vehicle.
EMarketer predicts U.S. search ads will rake in $12.3 billion next year, up slightly from its August estimate of $11.9 billion.
The Internet’s billboard-like “display ads” won’t hold up as well. EMarketer anticipates online display advertising will rise nearly 7 per cent next year to $4.9 billion, down from its August estimate of a 14 per cent increase to $5.9 billion.
Yet another reminder that the industry needs to completely rethink display ads.
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