From Deutsche Bank, which is already pretty bullish
Overview: In the last week, new information has caused us to consider significant upside risks to our near and medium-term GDP forecasts. Obviously, a more robust growth profile would have significant implications for our outlook on inflation, unemployment and monetary policy, which we discuss in more detail in our quarterly economic outlook. At minimum, it appears that the economy has finally transitioned from recovery to expansion, as our current quarter forecast puts economic output above where it was when the recession began in December 2007.
labour market slowly turning the corner: The US economy grew 2.5% last quarter and has grown at a 2.7% annualized rate year-to-date. This is only marginally above the economy’s long term potential growth rate, as reflected in the current 9.8% reading on the unemployment rate which is only slightly lower than its October 2009 peak of 10.1%. However, the underpinnings of a healthier job market are emerging as a result of continued strong gains in capital spending, which have been intertwined with a record recovery in corporate profits. This points to a more noticeable pickup in economic activity in 2011 relative to the current year.
And this morning’s trade deficit is also going to provide a boost
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