Get ready for a long day of back-and-forth headlines about the budget.
Without a deal, the government shuts down at midnight tonight.
The market really doesn’t seem to care very much, in part because any shutdown is expected to be short.
But the implications are huge for the bigger fight — the debt limit — because what’s going on right now basically is that John Boehner can’t get his caucus along for the vote. At least that’s how CNBC’s John Harwood is characterising the current situation.
If Boehner can’t get his party to vote on a budget, imagine how hard it’s going to be to get them to come along on such a much bigger issue.
Right now, the market doesn’t seem to care much about this issue at all, probably because the outcome as so asymmetrical. There’s a small chance of a catastrophic outcome, and a high chance of something totally benign.