Heading into week eleven, the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Arizona Cardinals are the overwhelming favourites to win this year’s Super Bowl according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Broncos, Cardinals, and Patriots all have a 16% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. Just two weeks ago, the Broncos were heavy favourites at 21% and both the Pats and Cards were at 11%.
In all, there are now just six teams that still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl:
- Denver Broncos, 16%
- Arizona Cardinals, 16%
- New England Patriots, 16%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 8%
- Seattle Seahawks, 8%
- Indianapolis Colts, 7%
The San Francisco 49ers (3%) and Dallas Cowboys (3%) both fell off the list with the Colts jumping up above the 5% threshold having won six of their last seven games.
At the other end, there are now 16 teams given less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Of those teams, the Jets, Titans, Jags, Raiders, Redskins, Bucs, and Rams are all given less than 1% chance of even making the playoffs.
We have a long way to go, but right now it looks like a 3-way race and the most likely Super Bowl matchup has the Cardinals playing in their home stadium against either the Broncos or Patriots.
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