The closer we get to Brexit, the more solid the majority against it is

  • The UK public would support a second Brexit referendum if Theresa May’s government tries to leave the European Union with no deal, according to YouGov.
  • Polls show a consistent majority for “remain.”
  • But the public does not support a repeat of the 2016 vote, in which the only choices were leave or remain.

The general public supports holding a second referendum on the decision to leave the European Union if the UK government attempts to Brexit without a deal, according to YouGov.

When the question is whether UK voters favour a referendum if the choice is between leaving with no deal or remaining in the EU, the split is:

  • Support: 50%
  • Oppose: 36%

But when asked whether there should be a new referendum on the same issue put to the country in 2016, whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU, the public goes against a new vote, according to YouGov’s data:

  • There should: 38%
  • There should not: 52%

Brexit is technically only 11 days away. The current deadline is March 29. This will change if EU leaders agree to an extension to the Article 50 withdrawal process later this week.

And yet while Theresa May struggles to deliver her Brexit deal, and MPs are struggle to agree on an alternative, opinion polls consistently show a majority of Brits favouring remain.

Here’s the tracking poll collated by Britain Elects. It currently shows a 6-point lead favouring remain:

The NatCen poll-of-polls shows a similar margin, according to this chart from Morgan Stanley analysts Jacob Nell and Bruna Skarica:

Morgan Stanley BrexitMorgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley also broke down YouGov voter preferences for the various outcomes. Remain wins, again:

BrexitMorgan Stanley

But the pro-remain majority isn’t shifting votes between the parties, according to a note to clients sent by UBS analyst John Wraith recently. That would imply that a new general election – the Labour Party’s favoured policy – would not radically alter the numbers inside the House of Commons.

That would give any new government the same problems finding a majority for Brexit that May’s current government has:

UBS BrexitUBS

“Recent opinion polls widely and consistently predict that there would be no clear majority and therefore no mandate for any government to push through a party agenda,” Wraith says.

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