The betting markets show just a 24% chance of a Brexit

Boris Johnson. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/ Getty Images / File

The betting odds of a Remain vote in the June 23 EU referendum continued to improve with only one day to go until the vote.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes currently gives the Leave vote just a 24% chance of winning, while William Hill is similarly unconvinced, pegging a Brexit likelihood at only 25%. This is down from last week, when the likelihood of a Leave vote hovered around the 40% mark.

Despite Leave’s betting odds getting worse by the hour, gamblers are still overwhelmingly betting on it happening, according to William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe:

“[Although] 66% of all the money gambled with William Hill on the outcome has been for Remain with bets of up to £100,000 staked, but 69% of all individual bets placed have been for Leave. There has been worldwide betting interest — we have taken bets from Andorra, Argentina, Austria, Canada, Finland, Holland, Japan, Malaysia, Malta, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, to name just a few countries!”

He added that after her performance in the Brexit debate at Wembley Area on Tuesday, Scottish Conservative Ruth Davidson now looked like a future Tory leader and that the number of Leave bets had not affected the odds (emphasis ours):

Ruth Davidson made a big impact, with a significant flurry of support for her throughout the debate to be the next Tory leader — we had to shorten her odds twice, eventually shortening them from 33/1 to 16/1. And while we took plenty of bets on the outcome of the Referendum during the debate — 70% of them for Leave, they were of moderate size and we have not changed the odds from 2/9 Remain, 3/1 Leave.

Here are the current odds of a Leave vote from the main bookmakers:

  • William Hill — 3/1
  • Ladbrokes — 3/1
  • Skybet — 3/1
  • Paddy Power — 3/1
  • Coral — 3/1
  • Betfred — 3/1
  • Betfair — 3/1

Although the odds favour a Remain vote, the Eu referendum is still far too close to call. A recent Survation poll showed the Remain and Leave sides virtually neck and neck with just two days to go until the vote.

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