So, what are the oil market pros predicting for prices after the crash of 2014?
Overall, they’re expecting prices to go up.
However, futures traders are positioned much more conservatively than what the professional oil price forecasters are predicting.
“Forecasters and market participants disagree about the likelihood of a significant rebound in oil prices during the next 12 months,” Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin wrote. “Many clients share the view priced into the futures market that Brent will remain below $US70 by year-end 2015. However, oil producers anticipate a rebound, echoing a Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters that expects Brent to rise by 35% to $US82 at year-end 2015 (Exhibit 2).”
Goldman’s house view is that Brent eventually rallies to $US85 a barrel.