HOORAY! The Online Ad Market Hasn't Collapsed In 2009

Hooray! We’re not in the middle of an ad-pocalypse. Some people thought we would be.

See the charts →

Just about a year ago, Gawker Media owner Nick Denton predicted the entire online advertising industry was headed for an unprecedented disaster in 2009.

He wrote, “From conglomerates to internet ventures, executives should be planning now on a decline of up to 40% in advertising spending during this cycle.”

The good news: Nick was way, way off!

The bad news: Internet advertising did in fact shrink during the first half of 2009 — by about 5.3%.

That stat is according to an Interactive Advertising Bureau report released today. Some other numbers about 2009’s first half from the report:

  • Search advertising actually grew.
  • Display-related advertising totaled nearly $3.8 billion,  showing 1.1% decline.
  • Digital video grew 38%.

Here’s a chart Nick made last year to illustrate what he thought would happen in 2009 (and what he thought publishers should do about it).

Now see the charts that show what actually happened during 2009’s first six months →

Overall revenues decline 5.3%

Castrophe averted: Q209 revenues stay above Q207 levels

Quarterly revenues peaked in 2008 after six years of growth

2009 revenues could exceed $22 billion in 2009

Revenues remain concentrated with the 10 leading ad-selling companies

Now a smaller piece of the pie, classified revenues shrank 32% between Q208 and Q209

Of the format categories depicted, only two have seen sustained losses in percentage share -- sponsorships and classifieds

Telecom, media industries spent more

Internet Ad Revenues by Pricing Model – 2004 – 2009

Performance-based spending went up, CPM, down

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