The big “black swan” of the moment is actually a positive one.
Preliminary indications suggest that the environmental impact from the BP oil spill will be less than feared.
At least that’s according to the NOAA, via Bloomberg, which says oil is dissipating quickly, and that at the moment Florida and The East Coast will largely be spared. Fortunately the loop current moved, and is over 100 miles away from where the oil is, and since no more oil is spewing the time being, we should be good.
Given Florida’s history with bad news (bubbles, scams, natural disasters), it just seemed inevitable that Florida would get hammered, too.
This news seemed likely last week, which is why we declared the oil spill to have likely been overblown.