So, here we are: weekend two of Watchmen‘s theatrical run. The film’s still not tracking well among non-fans, thanks to poor word-of-mouth. Furthermore, Watchmen‘s debut last weekend was big enough that most experts are predicting a roughly 60% drop off in its gross during its second frame. Even huge blockbusters like The Dark Knight and Iron Man fell off 50% during their second weekends, Slashfilm notes.
Given all of that, the consensus among our box-office experts (Slashfilm, Entertainment Weekly and Box Office Guru) is that the film will make $22 million over the weekend for a 10-day cume of $90 million.
All of our experts are also predicting that former pro wrestler Dwayne Johnson and his family-friendly Race to Witch Mountain will squeak out a win, with anywhere from $23 million–$28 million. The actor formerly known as The Rock was a box-office champ for Disney, which is also releasing Witch Mountain, with its September 2007 movie The Game Plan ($23 million opening weekend; $90 million total). Plus, as EW and Box Office Guru point out, most of the family-friendly films in theatres have been out for at least a month and the majority of new movies are rated “R.” That creates an opening for the PG-13 Race to Witch Mountain to, um, run away with the box office. Either way, Carla Gugino, who stars in both Watchmen and Race to Witch Mountain, should end up with a win this weekend.
Rogue Pictures’ gruesome remake of Wes Craven’s The Last House on the Left should also do well this weekend, despite its lack of starpower. It’s got the Friday the 13th release date and should appeal to the same torture porn fans who’ve made Saw and films of its ilk box-office winners. Our experts estimate a $13 million–$18 million total for the three-day frame.
Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight’s R-rated sex comedy Miss March looks mildly amusing based on the few TV commercials we’ve seen, but it’s not tracking very well and will be lucky to make it into the Top 5 with its expected $5 million take.
But it’s not all bad news at Fox, Taken is still going strong enough that it’s likely to end up fourth or fifth for the weekend with more than $5 million.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.