Just a year after Hannah Montana’s 3-D concert film made a staggering $31 million from just 683 theatres, her fellow Disney celebs the Jonas Brothers are hitting twice as many 3-D screens with their concert film. The Jonas Brothers obviously have a huge fanbase of teen and tween girls who’ll be lured to the multiplex by the prospect of virtually touching a Jonas, but box-office prognosticators aren’t expecting the film to do Hannah Montana-like numbers.
EW is predicting that Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience will make $22 million this weekend*, which is good enough for No. 1. But the brothers Jonas haven’t sold nearly as many advance tickets as Hannah Montana did. Plus, Hannah Montana was preceded by a real-life sold-out concert tour and was originally only supposed to be in theatres for one week, both of which boosted ticket sales.
Last week’s champ, Lionsgate’s Madea Goes to Jail, is expected to plummet anywhere from 45–60 per cent this week, since that’s usually what Tyler Perry’s films do on their second weekend, and last weekend’s gross was so high that this weekend should see a major drop-off. Experts are predicting a $16 million–$18 million weekend.
Slumdog Millionaire is expected to get an Oscar bump, which will be helped by Fox Searchlight opening the movie in another 699 theatres, boosting its total screens to 2,943—the widest release in Fox Searchlight’s history. The movie’s expected to pull in roughly $10 million, increasing its cumulative gross to more than $110 million domestic.
It will be a contest between Fox’s unstoppable Taken and Focus Features’ Coraline for the fourth and fifth place spots. Both movies are expected to make between $6 million and $7 million for the weekend. Coraline will be severely hurt by the fact that the Jonas Brothers are taking most of its 3-D screens. Meanwhile, Taken should top $100 million domestic today.
The week’s only other wide opener is Fox’s Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li. While it serves as nice counterprogramming for teenage boys, it doesn’t have much buzz, so it’s expected to make less than $5 million for the weekend.
Nonetheless, all of these predictions could end up being way too low. The gangbusters business at the box-office lately has made it difficult to accurately project how well movies will do.
*Slashfilm is going with $30 million for the Jonas Brothers, which seems unusually high if advance ticket sales really aren’t close to what they were for Hannah Montana, so we went with EW‘s number, which veteran entertainment-industry reporter Nicole Sperling qualified by noting that most of her sources say the film will only gross in the teens.