Movie theatres will be overrun by teenage girls yet again this weekend, as heartthrob Zac Efron’s role-reversal movie 17 Again looks likely to nab the top spot at the box office, followed by Hannah Montana in a close second.
Warner Bros.17 Again is expected to make somewhere in the mid-$20 million range this weekend, which was the same estimate given to Hannah Montana going into last weekend. But we think Efron’s film could do a bit better than that. His High School Musical movie opened to $42 million last fall and we think 17 Again might attract more people old enough to drive (and possibly vote and drink) than Hannah Montana did. After all, there are plenty of women who think Efron is quite dreamy, and the movie co-stars former Friend Matthew Perry, who should hopefully lure some older viewers.
Hannah Montana‘s box-office take is likely to be down 60% from last weekend, a typical second-weekend drop for movies made from successful Disney channel TV shows. Plus, last weekend’s total was goosed by many people having Good Friday off, and 17 Again will be appealing to/stealing the same audience. According to Warner Bros. distribution head, Dan Fellman, that’s exactly what they hope will happen. Regardless, Disney shouldn’t be too worried about Miley. Hannah continued to pull in sizable numbers throughout the week thanks to spring break and the movie’s already grossed $41.7 million domestically. This weekend, it should pull in another $13 million–15 million, which would be good enough for second place.
Expect the third spot to go to Lionsgate’s Crank: High Voltage, the sequel to 2006’s action flick Crank. Crank opened with $10.5 million, and since this film is the best new bet for teenage boys, it should perform similarly well, despite its R rating. Its weekend total is expected to be $12 million-$15 million, meaning it could be a close race between Crank and Hannah Montana for second place.
The weekend’s other wide new release is the awesome-looking State of Play, also the best-reviewed movie of the weekend with an 82% freshness rating on rottentomatoes.com. It’s what we, and other movie journalists, plan to see. But sadly, most box-office experts and tracking reports are saying this smart political thriller will likely only bank $11 million or so this weekend, a disappointment for Universal considering that the movie’s budget is north of $60 million. Depending on how well holdover titles like Fast & Furious and Monsters vs. Aliens perform, State of Play might not make it into the top 5 for the weekend.
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