US Treasurys are under significant pressure for a second consecutive day. Friday’s selling has yields up 7 to 8 basis points at the long end of the curve with the 10-year yield now at 1.666%, its highest since late June. When bond prices go fall, yields rise.
And BNP Paribas says the selling is likely to continue. In a note sent out to clients on Thursday, the team of Shahid Ladha and Timothy High wrote there are several factors that point to even higher yields and a steeper yield curve in the US.
Those factors include, but are not limited to:
- Expectations the consumer price index will climb to 2% by the end of the year, up from 0.8% in July.
- The market expecting the Fed to remain on hold, which “should allow premia to return in the curve” and limit a downturn in risky assets.
- Hawkish rhetoric from other central banks could allow for the return of volatility in rates markets.
As for Friday’s action here’s the scoreboard:
- 2Y +2.6 bps @ 79.6 bps
- 3Y +3.3 bps @ 92.9 bps
- 5Y +4.9 bps @ 1.23%
- 7Y +6.0 bps @ 1.51%
- 10Y +6.7 bps @ 1.666%
- 30Y +8.1 bps @ 2.385%
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