GUNDLACH: The bond market’s ‘moment of truth has arrived’

  • DoubleLine CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach tweeted, “The moment of truth has arrived for secular bond bull market!”
  • On Wednesday, the US 10-year yield hit 2.45%, its highest in seven months.
  • In January, Gundlach said the 10-year could hit 6% in the next five years.

Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach has been sounding the alarm on a Treasury market selloff for some time now. On Tuesday, the CEO and founder of DoubleLine Capital took his warning to a whole new level, after the US 10-year yield crossed the 2.40% level, putting in its highest print since May.

“The moment of truth has arrived for secular bond bull market!” Gundlach tweeted. “Need to start rallying effective immediately or obituaries need to be written.”

The end of the secular bond bull market would be a significant event. For more than three decades, bond investors have enjoyed massive returns as bond yields pressed lower and lower. Since 1981, the 10-year yield has fallen from near 16% to below 2%, luring in more and more investors along the way.

If Wednesday’s action is any indication, things could get ugly. That’s because the 10-year yield ticked up another handful of basis points to 2.45%, its highest in seven months. The yield is now within 15 basis points of its 2017 highs.

US 10year

Bond yields rallied sharply in the wake of President Donald Trump’s election as traders priced in the possibility on speculation his policies would bring back growth and inflation to the US. The US 10-year yield surged about 80 basis points from early November into the end of 2016.

But, the 10-year stalled out near 2.60% as Trump has been unable to deliver on his campaign promises and US inflation has remained persistently low. It put in a low near 2.04% in early September, but has since rallied more than 40 basis points on the hope of tax reform and the announcement by the Fed that it plans to unwind its massive balance sheet.

As for the scope of the selloff that could occur, Gundlach told the Baron’s Roundtable in January that the 10-year could hit 6% in the next five years.

By that time many bond trader obituaries would be written.

Gundlach did not immediately respond to a request from Business Insider for an update to his bond market call.