We haven’t seen the full note, but this is going around…US Economics – Weaker US consumer fundamentals & European concerns lead to 2012 negative GDP revisions:
Q1F 2.0 to 1.8%
Q2F 2.0 to 1.8%
Q3F 1.5 to 1.3%
Q4F 1.3% unch
2012F 2.1 to 2.0%
We have pushed up our US recession probability for 2012 from 35 to 40%. 2011Q4F remains at 3.0% with upside risk.
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