Nomura’s famously bearish Bob Janjuah is out with his first note of the year (via FT Alphaville), and he’s… bearish.
“The worst of the eurozone mess is still haead of us,” he says, and the US is not out of the woods.
He has some very specific predictions….
I think we are very close (days) from a top of some sorts in equities and the risk-on trade. Depending on price action, I reckon the time to get short risk is around/by January 13th – as a proxy guide the S&P should be within 3% to 5% of current levels (1277 S&P).
I think Q1 is going to be extremely bearish for risk, for equities, for the periphery, for the euro, for credit spreads, etc. The real pain may only be seen in March, when I expect the hard Greece default to happen. In Q1 I expect the S&P will trade down to/below 1000, and core US, UK and German government Bond yields will be closer to 1.5% than 2%.
He concludes with this shrill statement:
Apologies to all for not telling you anything new or very different. One day, when we collectively abandon the neo-communist experiment in the West that relies on more debt and printing money in order to maintain the status quo, then I will hopefully have a different and far more positive view of the years ahead. I look forward to this time. But for now, expect more of the same as in 2011. And I know it‟s a few weeks early, but as I am unlikely to write anything for at least a month, Kung Hei Fat Choi. The year of the dragon will soon be upon us.