2015 is not going quietly.
The stock market is flat but it’s been a very bumpy ride. The Federal Reserve looks set to raise interest rates next week for the first time in over nine years. Donald Trump is leading in the polls.
And so in a note to clients on Thursday, the global economics team at BNP Paribas sort of split its head open for readers and rattled off bullet points on what the firm’s top economists are thinking about.
It’s a varied list and, all things considered, sort of full of half-topics you could write or think about for hours on their own.
But this is a great look at what the members of a major Wall Street economics team find striking, for better or worse.
- Trump’s potential to run as an independent makes him hard to deal with for the GOP (echoes of Perot).
- Cruz seems the least critical of Trump — positioning to pick up Trump’s votes if Trump falls?
- Employment compensation plans in the latest NFIB survey surge to equal last cycle’s highs.
- Weather will play a significant role in data releases in the coming quarters.
- Credit guys saying that things are really, really messy in the HY space.
- Steel production in the US has slowed significantly.
- Lower oil prices seem to be good for break-evens — probably a sign it’s not adverse global aggregate demand, or just a reflection of higher nominal rates ahead of the Fed and post ECB?
- Has the positive correlation between the 5y5y forward breakeven and the price of oil disappeared for good?
- In real terms, wage growth rarely is above 2.5%, and it is now — it won’t last.