Photo: Bloomberg BRIEF
Three years into its recovery, the U.S. economy is still growing at a painfully slow pace.Bloomberg BRIEF Economics just published an excellent presentation featuring its outlook for the U.S. economy. Its author, Joseph Brusuelas, finds that the U.S. economy is in a “slow growth trap”.
Click Here To See The Presentation >
He projects growth to slow to 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Brusuelas thinks that an increase in hiring is unlikely, and there is “slight risk” that unemployment could tick up to 8 per cent again by the end of the year.
Moreover, the Fiscal Cliff has increased the risk of a recession.
“The probability of the fiscal shock taking place next year has grown,” he says. “While the Fed is on record saying it can act to help mitigate the impact of fiscal policy, it cannot completely forestall the full effect” of the shock set to kick in Jan 2013 should the current fiscal policy path be left unchanged.
Brusuelas’ presentation is one of the best and more comprehensive overviews of the economy we’ve seen.
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