Janus Capital’s Bill Gross says the German 10-year bond, widely known as the “Bund,” is the “short of a lifetime.”
Here’s Gross’ tweet from Tuesday morning:
Gross: German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE
— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) April 21, 2015
On Bloomberg TV on Tuesday afternoon, however, Gross clarified his comments, and said that if you want to get in on this trade, you’re gonna have to wait a while.
*GROSS SAYS WAIT FOR ENDING OF ECB QE BEFORE SHORTING BUNDS
— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 21, 2015
The ECB is currently planning to continue its QE program until September 2016, and at his latest press conference, ECB president Mario Draghi made clear there are no plans to end this program early.
Currently, German Bunds are yielding around 9.5 basis points, or 0.095%.
In contrast, US 10-year notes are yielding around 1.9%.
Here’s a look at the decline in bond yields over the last 10 years, and you’ll see that while the US 10-year and the bund used to trade in lock-step, there’s been a divergence recently. And Gross is betting that this will come back together. In 2016.