Bill De Blasio Has Taken A Gigantic Lead In The New York City Mayor's Race

Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has taken a runoff-proof lead in the Democratic primary race for mayor of New York City, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday.
De Blasio is at 43% in the new poll, his highest standing ever. If he manages to earn that percentage of the vote in next Tuesday’s primary, he would avoid a runoff with the second-highest candidate in the Democratic field. He jumped from 36% in last week’s Quinnipiac survey.

Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson garners 20% of the vote, the same level he was at last week. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, meanwhile, has slipped to 18% — her lowest standing in the poll. She is down from her 21% standing in last week’s poll. Much-maligned candidate Anthony Weiner gets only 7% of the vote.

What’s crucial for de Blasio is his incredible standing with black and women voters — two groups that have trended from Thompson and Quinn, respectively, to de Blasio.

De Blasio leads with 47% of the black vote, nearly doubling Thompson’s share. And among women voters, de Blasio grabs 44% of the vote, compared with Thompson’s 19% and Quinn’s 18%.

Even if a runoff were to occur, de Blasio doesn’t look like he has anything to worry about. Here are the runoff scores between the top-three candidates:

  • De Blasio over Quinn 66 — 25 per cent;
  • De Blasio leads Thompson 56 — 36 per cent;
  • Thompson tops Quinn 59 — 33 per cent.

Here’s a chart that shows de Blasio’s incredible rise:

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