- INSIDER has been polling about the Democratic field on a rolling basis since late last year.
- Rather than asking who people most want to be the nominee, we’re more interested in overlapping support.
- We ask people whether they’d be satisfied or dissatisfied with a person as nominee and whether they think that person would win or lose against President Donald Trump in the general election.
- It’s still really early, but Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York received staggeringly bad numbers the first time we polled him.
Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York threw his hat in the ring last week and formally entered the Democratic presidential primary campaign.
Despite testy relationships with the press on his home turf of New York, de Blasio believes his accomplishments on implementing universal pre-K education and his administration’s management of the city make him well-poised for the 2020 election.
We added him to our recurring INSIDER poll conducted on an audience of national adults through SurveyMonkey Audience in the poll that ran this past Friday and Saturday. Though typically we want to wait until we run a candidate several times to draw conclusions about his or her candidacy, de Blasio’s numbers in the poll are alarmingly bad.
There were 1,168 respondents, of whom 485 were American adults who said they’d most likely participate in a Democratic primary and were registered to vote. We’ll want to get more data, but that’s a fairly good sample to begin with.
Overall, half of respondents had heard of de Blasio, with 248 (51%) saying they were aware of him. That’s really good! That’s a higher level of awareness than several candidates who have been running for quite some time, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.
Here’s the bad part for de Blasio:
- Of those who have heard of him, 44% said they would not be satisfied with him as the nominee.
- That is by far the highest dissatisfaction rate we’ve observed of any Democrat at any time in this race.
- Only 10% of those who have heard of him said they would be satisfied with him as nominee.
Effectively, de Blasio seems to register as a candidate who already has made an impact on half the potential voter base and for whom that impact was negative four times as often as it was positive.
People also don’t think de Blasio would stand much of a chance against President Donald Trump.
Just for a baseline, for a standard Democrat in the race, our poll found since March that 32% of primary voters thought the candidate would beat Trump and that 30% of those primary voters thought the candidate would lose in the general.
De Blasio was believed to beat Trump by a paltry 12% of the primary voters and was said to lose to Trump by 49% of primary voters, a staggering figure for someone with de Blasio’s name recognition.
Obviously there are caveats.
This is just one poll, and any one poll shouldn’t be weighted too heavily. We’ll keep running this question and will keep an eye on whether this is a fluke for Hizzoner or whether it’s emblematic of a larger trend. If the name recognition weren’t so high and the disparity so significant, we’d err on the side of wait and see.
Second, this is a survey of American adults, not Iowa or New Hampshire adults. Maybe the mayor of New York is really well-suited to crushing it in Iowa!
Either way, this is not exactly a great sign for the de Blasio campaign.