BI FLASH PROJECTION: Updated Model Shows 130K Job Gains In May

In recent months we’ve has been making a Non-Farm Payrolls (jobs report) prediction in the days ahead of the official number. Our estimate is based on a variety of data. However this month we’re going to present a series of “flash” estimates, as the economic data comes in, thus allowing us to build out our model. This is the second instalment of our series, which we will be updating before next Friday’s announcement.

Business Insider continues to project that next Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will show the economy added 130,000 net new jobs in May.

That still represents a below consensus view, although the median estimate fell to 148,000 from 155,000 earlier in the week.

The new model adds employment data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and a new flash reading of manufacturing activity in the country produced by Markit Economics. 

The model has an R square with first NFP changes (pre-revisions) of 0.7234. Below, output from the model — plotting actual changes in monthly employment (vertical) to the model’s forecast (horizontal).

Chart

Photo: Chart: Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Regional Federal Reserves

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