In recent months Business Insider has been making a Non-Farm Payrolls (jobs report) prediction in the days ahead of the official number. Our estimate is based on a variety of data. Starting in May, Business Insider began presenting a series of “flash” estimates, as the economic data is reported, allowing us to build out our model. This is the first instalment in the June series, which we will be updating before next Friday’s announcement.
Business Insider projects that next Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will show the economy added 90,000 net new jobs in June, slightly below Wall Street consensus.
Wall Street currently forecasts U.S. employment increased by 96,000 new jobs during the month.
Flash projections are based on regional Federal Reserve data and are updated as the five districts that publish monthly regional readings report over the course of the month. Those districts include the New York, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Richmond reserves.
The June figure is currently based on data from New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Richmond. While some regions have reported overall weakness, employment trends generally held up.
“labour market indicators reflected stronger labour demand growth and steady workweeks,” the Dallas Fed said in a statement. “20-one per cent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 8 per cent reported layoffs.”
The model has an R square with first NFP changes (pre-revisions) of 0.7050.
Below, output from the model — plotting actual changes in monthly employment (vertical) to the model’s forecast (horizontal).
Photo: Eric Platt/Business Insider