- Beyond Meat has had a blockbuster IPO, but has also experienced whiplash in its stock.
- There are many companies entering the plant-based meat market.
- Analysts say that even though Beyond Meat was first to market, it might not offer the best product or continue to outperform to the same degree.
- Read more on Markets Insider.
Beyond Meat is not the only protein producer to which investors should be paying attention.
Sure, the plant-based meat alternatives company has had an outstanding first few months on the market. And shares are trading up more than 500% from their IPO price of $US25, making Beyond Meat’s IPO the best-performing in the US this year.
But analysts are growing sceptical and have turned from bullish to neutral. The first dent in the company’s armour was a 25% drop on June 11 after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight, citing concerns over the company’s valuation.
The rest of Wall Street quickly followed suit, backing away from Beyond Meat. The last analyst with a buy rating downgraded the stock to market perform Wednesday.
Increased competition in the space has also led Beyond’s stock to whiplash as a number of food companies have jumped to get into the plant-based meat market, which analysts at Barclays have estimated could grow to be roughly $US140 billion over the next decade.
As more players enter the field, there will be extra pressure on Beyond to perform against established food companies with brand recognition and a competitive edge.
“[Those stalwarts have] already got a whole sales distribution and delivery network in place,” said Don Close, a senior analyst of animal protein at Rabobank. “That’s going to be a huge advantage.”
But some industry watchers disagree that traditional food and meat companies will take the lead.
“When you have existing meat manufacturers getting into this space, for those who are driven by idealism and wanting to change the planet, it won’t move them in any significant way,” said Eric Schiffer, CEO of the Patriarch Organisation, a private-equity firm.
Still, Schiffer said that increased competition could apply downside pressure to Beyond, especially as other products come to market and drive down the price.
“I think that there will be products that are more capital efficient,” he said. “There are also products that taste better than Beyond Meat’s burger, which will be an important factor for consumers going forward.”
Expanding the plant-based meat alternatives space beyond ground beef – which Beyond Meat burgers replicate – will also be important as its only a small portion of animal protein, said Will Sawyer, lead economist of animal protein at CoBank.
Tyson Foods announced Thursday that it would launch a line of plant-based meat alternatives that included burgers, chicken nuggets, and blended products that include meat and plants.
“We used to have two options – you could go alt or traditional,” said Sawyer. But an in-between option is interesting, he said, and consumers will soon decide if that’s where they want to be.
For investors looking for less hype and a more stable trajectory, here are some other major players that analysts say are worth watching:
Year-to-date gains: 25%
The line, Raised & Rooted, will roll out nuggets to national retailers this summer and blended burgers in the fall.
Year-to-date gains: 50%
Conagra Brands is the packaged-food company behind Duncan Hines, Reddi Wip, Marie Callender’s, and Slim Jim.
The company also has a brand of vegan-meat products called Gardein that include plant-based turkey cutlets, chicken strips, chicken wings, burgers, sausage and meatless meatballs currently available at most grocery stores in the US.
The stock crashed at the end of 2018 after an earnings miss, but has regained lost ground in 2019 and is currently rated “overweight” by JPMorgan.
Year-to-date gains: 40%
Impossible Foods, the company behind the Impossible Whopper, is a privately-held company. Still, it’s one to keep an eye on.
Compared to Beyond Meat, Impossible “has a far better product and I think ultimately will be the big gorilla because of that,” said Eric Schiffer, CEO of the Patriarchal Organisation.
Restaurant Brands International
Restaurant Brands International is the parent company of Burger King – which rolled out the Impossible Whopper this year – and Tim Hortons, which recently announced that Beyond Meat breakfast sandwiches were available on menus across Canada.
Fast-food chains are increasingly responding to the demand for plant-based mead alternatives, but Burger King and Tim Hortons are early adopters of such products.
Year-to-date gains: 33%
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