LONDON — Theresa May is still heavily favoured to remain as prime minister after the June 8 election, despite a clear surge for the Labour Party in recent opinion polls.
Prime Minister May has an 88% implied probability of winning the general election next month at the time of writing, while Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has a 12% chance, according to prices on the Smarkets betting exchange.
The political betting markets are continuing to lean heavily in the Conservative leader’s favour despite polls showing the gap between the Tories and Labour getting narrower the closer we get to voting day.
A YouGov poll published for the Times newspaper on Thursday evening put the Tories just five per cent ahead of Labour. The Conservatives had a 16% lead over Corbyn’s party in a poll YouGov published just over two weeks ago.
Nevertheless, May remains the heavy favourite to wake up as prime minister on June 9.
Corbyn’s implied probability is low but steadily on the rise. He had just a 4.55% implied probability of becoming prime minister with the Smarkets exchange two weeks ago, meaning his chances have doubled in space of 14 days.
However, bettors remain convinced that May will win the election, despite a less-than-ideal campaign marked by a major U-turn over social care policy and accusations of avoiding members of the public and talking to journalists.
A Smarkets customer who can’t be named stands to lose £9,000 if May doesn’t remain prime minister.
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