Bernie Sanders just passed Joe Biden for the first time in a political betting poll

MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty ImagesDemocratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks during the 2019 J Street National Conference at the Walter E. Washington Convention Centre in Washington, DC on October 28, 2019
  • Bernie Sanders surpassed Joe Biden for the first time in a poll on the political betting site PredictIt.
  • People on the site bet that Sanders has a 39% chance of winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, while Biden’s chances fell to 35%, according to the site on Monday.
  • Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is third in the poll at 14%, while Elizabeth Warren is tied with Andrew Yang for fourth place at 7%.
  • Sanders’ rise correlates with his recent surge in various national and statewide polls that put him tied or ahead of Biden.
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Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders recently surpassed former Vice President Joe Biden in a poll on the popular political betting site PredictIt for the first time, just days ahead of the first caucus for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders led in the poll with a 39% chance of winning the nomination, while Biden followed at 34%. People on the site buy shares corresponding with the polls, so a share trading at 39 cents corresponds with a 39% chance.

The bets correlate with Sanders’ rise in recent national and statewide polls that show him in line with or leading against Biden.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg comes in third on the betting site at 14 cents per share, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren and businessman Andrew Yang are tied for fourth at 7 cents.

In bets for state caucuses, Sanders surpassed Iowa frontrunner Pete Buttigieg in December and held a steady lead in a New Hampshire bet.

PredictIt is run by Victoria University in New Zealand for educational purposes, according to its website, which says it uses real money to give users some stake in their bets and improve the research value of the bets – and because “real money is fun.”

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