In the Italian election that occurred at the end of February, the big shock was the surprise 25% showing for Beppe Grillo’s M5 movement.
That movement represented an enormous protest vote against the establishment. It briefly sent shockwaves through markets, and although most markets have recovered, Italy has been a laggard, as no party in the election garnered enough seats in parliament to form a government.
It’s possible that there will have to be new elections sometime in the next few months. September is a possibility.
To that end, this is ominous.
A new poll (Tweeted by Fabrizio Goria) shows surging support for Grillo. The election only added to his momentum, and he’s now at 30%. Almost as worrisome for Europe: Berlusconi’s PDL has also gained since the election.
These both represent protests aimed at austerity and Brussells. Remember, Italy has gotten its borrowing costs down, because its engaged in austerity/reforms that the ECB likes. If Italy goes back on them, the ECB backstop becomes less politically tenable, and then you could have surging borrowing costs in Europe’s largest debt market.
Europe should A) be very afraid of another election and B) feel a sense of urgency about fixing the economic situation that’s causing this much support for rebel parties.
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