BCA Research: Still No Bottom For The US Dollar


Rising dollar commodity prices, generally from low points in the early stages of this year, are now seen by some commentators as possibly running into bubble territory, as, effectively, a one-way bet against the dollar. Dollar gold bullion, for one, has made fresh all time records within the past 24 hours, at more than US$1,200 an ounce. Commodities enjoy broader support, as reflected in the majority of world stocks exchanges trading at or close to the highest levels this year.

For speculators on the dollar commodity price train, the ceiling is yet to be reached, according to analysts at the Bank Credit Analyst, which reckon that “the dollar is not technically oversold and fundamental factors for a bottom are still not in place”. Seen over the longer term, the dollar index recorded a bull market from 1995 through 2001. It has been in a protracted bear market since, but at current levels, is above multi year lows seen in April 2008, when it measured 70.70 points, the lowest since inception in 1973.

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