Barry Ritholtz, the brains behind the Big Picture blog, is out with his 2014 global market and economic forecasts, and they are brilliant.
From his U.S. forecasts:
|Dow Jones Industrials||No idea|
|S&P500||WTF are you asking me for?|
|10 Year Bond||Could not fathom a guess|
|Fed Fund Rates||Haven’t a clue|
|US Housing Market||That’s a really good question|
|Inflation||Not a clue|
|GDP||Yes, we will probably have a GDP|
|Possibility of Recession in 2014||Possibility & Probability are 2 different things|
OK, so what the heck is this about.
Well, it’s obviously a joke.
However, the message is loud and clear: it’s foolish to try to predict what’ll happen in the near-term. More often than not, it’s just a mentally-frustrating and money-losing exercise.
Sure, it’s probably a good idea to make short-term, tactical adjustments to your portfolios if valuations scream opportunity. But, this should always be done in the context of your long-term, strategic investment plan.
So as you revisit your investments, keep Ritholtz’s forecasts in mind.