Market sceptics are going to hate this, especially the ones who believe magazine covers are contrarian indicators.
In it’s latest cover story title “We Were Right,” Barron’s boasts about its call for new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
“Barron’s jubilantly joins the hoopla over Dow 15,000, having predicted it early last year,” writes Gene Epstein.
He doesn’t stop there. In fact, he goes all the way back to Barron’s calls since 2009:
Similarly, since the market’s more recent near-death moment, in early 2009, Barron’s has been running periodic updates on the long-term record of the market using historical data compiled by Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run (see “Case Closed: Stocks Work,” March 9, 2009).
Speaking of Siegel, here’s Epstein: “Siegel ventures a more short-term outlook. Believing price/earnings multiples are likely to expand, he views “16,000-17,000 as within range by the end of this year.”
The bullishness doesn’t stop there:
Whenever stock-market returns have stretched to an extreme, they’ve generally snapped back to equilibrium, with weak periods followed by strength and vice versa. While some five- and 10-year periods have been negative, all 20- and 30-year spans have been positive. Even with the market’s recent strong performance, stocks are up just 5.8% a year over the past five years. That’s well below the median return of 9.41%. Put another way, the odds still favour the bulls.
The more patient bears may eventually be proven right. But anyone who’s been doing the opposite of what Barron’s has recommended has been losing money fro at least four years.
Read More At Barron’s.com.