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According to Barclays loss of the full season of NFL football would reduce DirecTV’s revenue by $1.00 per share or $650 million in the third quarter (For reference, revenue is around $2 billion).Yesterday the NFL Network reported that the current CBA between the owners and players had been given a 24-hour extension which expires tonight at 11:59 PM.
Barclays analyst James Ratcliffe said the judge’s decision will not affect DTV and broadcasters’ obligation to make TV rights payments even if there is no season but could “limit the portion of those payments that the NFL actually receives versus being allocated by the judge to the players or put into escrow.”
Barclays estimates that DTV will pay the NFL approximately $1.05 billion this year if there is a lockout.
If there is only a partial season the payment would be based on a pro-rata share of the expected $950 million DirecTV was expected to pay based on the number of games played.
Barclays also said CBS carries the most risk because of its high exposure to NFL-related revenues.
ESPN could gain the most because its college football coverage could be a substitute for NFL programming.