We all know that 2016 has been a year of immense upheaval in Western politics, and that turmoil is set to continue in 2017.
Donald Trump will formally become the leader of the free world, the British government will trigger Article 50 and start the process of leaving the EU, and in France, there is a genuine possibility that the country could elect a far right, anti-Islamic president in Marine Le Pen.
With just under four months until the first round of the election, much remains unclear. We know that Le Pen will be the Front National’s candidate, and that Francois Fillon — who won a shock primary victory over rival Alain Juppe — will be the centre-right Republican candidate.
On the country’s left, the picture is less clear, as incumbent President Francois Hollande will not stand for a second term thanks to shockingly low approval ratings. Hollande’s Socialist Party has yet to choose a candidate, while former finance minister Emmanuel Macron has formed his own party, En Marche! and will stand on a left-leaning platform.
Fillon is the clear favourite to take over from Hollande, but Le Pen’s polling numbers are good and if 2017 follows the pattern of this year, she could easily spring a surprise.
In short, the outcome of the French election is incredibly uncertain. Barclays’ research arm has compiled a useful chart looking at all the possible scenarios that could stem from the election.
The chart assumes that Marine Le Pen will reach the second round of voting, and looks at the economic scenarios that could play out, as well as examining the political fallout of the election.
Check it out below:
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