In one flowchart, here's why first quarter earnings will probably be fine

Earnings are expected to decline 4.7% in the first quarter.

But in a note to clients Wednesday, Barclays’ Jonathan Glionna lays out why earnings expectations probably do not have further downside, give that they already account for negative factors such as the strong dollar and weak energy prices.

“We believe the deterioration in earnings expectations is a primary reason why the S&P 500 has failed to rally in 2015. Still, estimates for 1Q15 have adjusted enough, and we do not expect EPS for the S&P 500 to miss expectations. We are reiterating our 2100 price target for the S&P 500, which incorporates the slow pace of revenue and earnings growth and above average valuation multiples.”

As Goldman analysts previously noted, it’s been the worst quarter ever for earnings guidance.

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