Some people like forecasts, some people hate them.
If you’re in the latter camp, then you might want to avoid this chart.
In a note to clients on Monday, Barclays shared the results of it’s quarterly macro survey. And data from the 889 institutional investors who participated show that investors totally rolled over on their outlook for German bunds.
At the start of the year, almost all investors saw bund yields under 0.5% in the next three months.
This prediction was spectacularly wrong, as bund yields exploded higher and as of Monday were sitting near 0.9%. But, undeterred by being totally wrong in Q1, investors think bund yields could go higher from here — after investors lost 25 years of yield in just 2 weeks.
“Interestingly, 44% of rates investors believe that bund yields have more room to rise in the coming months,” Barclays’ report said. “This suggests a big revision in investors’ expectations about bund yields since our last survey.”
Which is one way to say it.
Here’s what that big revision looks like:
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