“Our macro narrative is simple, if obvious,” Barclays’ Jonathan Glionna said. “We believe U.S. interest rates will go up leading to a stronger U.S. dollar. This should cause earnings per share growth and returns to remain subdued. We forecast 4% EPS growth and a 5% gain for the S&P 500.”
“We maintain our view that return expectations should roughly match EPS growth expectations,” he added. “In other words, we do not expect any more expansion in valuation multiples. Our S&P 500 price target for the end of 2016 is 2200.”
Glionna lays out his whole argument in a meaty 16-page note.
But this is the short of it.
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