REMINDER: Here Are The 25 Financial Institutions Most Likely To Default

Yang Guoqiang

With the wild action going on in the market today, we thought we’d bring this back to you…

Financial firms around the world have been under increased stress due to the sovereign debt crises of Europe and the resulting reduction in confidence in the global economy.

We’ve outlined 25 companies, using data from CMA Datavision, which have the largest risk of default.

Notably, Greek banks, Chinese real estate developers, and U.S. subprime giants show up big on the list.

That default risk (cumulative probability of default) is measured through fluctuations in the company’s CDS rating, and the height of that rating. The spread of each 5-year CDS is also listed.

25: Assured Guaranty Corp

CEO: Dominic J. Frederico

What Do They Do: Asset backed and structured finance underwriters and insurers.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 38.6%

5-year Mid CDS: 675.6

Source: CMA Datavision

24: Caja de Ahorros de Valencia, Castellon y Alicante

CEO: José Fernando García Checa

What Do They Do: Mainly a banking a credit services firm, they are also involved in investing across a range of asset classes including real estate.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 38.8%

5-year Mid CDS: 568.6 bps

Source: CMA Datavision

23: DEPFA Bank Plc

CEO: Cyril Dunne

What Do They Do: A subsidiary of German financial firm Hypo, DEPFA is a public sector and infrastructure finance company.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 41.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 730.6

Source: CMA Datavision

22: EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A.

CEO: Nicholas C. Nanopoulos

What Do They Do: Third largest Greek bank, focusing on both private and commerical banking. Has a particular interest in Southern Eastern Europe.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 41.9%

5-year Mid CDS: 677.5

Source: CMA Datavision

21: Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo

CEO: Roberto Lopez Abad

What Do They Do: A non-profit Spanish banking firm, which focuses on retail banking, but also works in insurance.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 42.4%

5-year Mid CDS: 639.6

Source: CMA Datavision

20: American General Finance Corp.

CEO: Jerry Schiano

What Do They Do: As a division of AIG, American General Finance Corp. provides a variety of loan services, including consolidation, home equity, and vacation loans.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 42.5%

5-year Mid CDS: 734.0

Source: CMA Datavision

19: Residential Capital, LLC

CEO: Thomas Marano

What Do They Do: A holding company for GMAC's assets, and securitizer of mortgage loans.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 43.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 478.8

Source: CMA Datavision

18: Kazkommertsbank JSC

Chairman of the Board of Directors: Nurzhan S. Subkhanberdin

What Do They Do: As Kazakstan's largest bank, Kazkommertsbank works in both retail and commercial banking and lending.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 44.1%

5-year Mid CDS: 897.4

Source: CMA Datavision

17: Piraeus Bank S.A.

CEO: Michael Sallas

What Do They Do: A Greek bank, Piraeus works in south eastern and eastern Europe, with a special emphasis on Romania. The bank engages in traditional retail and commercial banking, as well as real estate.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD):

5-year Mid CDS:

Source: CMA Datavision

16: Agile Property Holdings Limited

Chairman: Chen Zhuolin

What Do They Do: Chinese land developer, focusing on Guangdong Province.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 46.8%

5-year Mid CDS: 705.1

Source: CMA Datavision

15: Shimao Property Holdings Limited

Chairman: Wing Mau Hui

What Do They Do: A property investment and holding company centered in Shanghai, China.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 46.9%

5-year Mid CDS: 826.9

Source: CMA Datavision

14: Radian Group Inc

CEO: S.A. Ibrahim

What Do They Do: Provides insurance protection for mortgage instruments, headquartered in Philadelphia.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 48.4%

5-year Mid CDS: 642.6

Source: CMA Datavision

13: Realogy Corporation

CEO: Richard Smith

What Do They Do: Real estate company, which includes Century 21 and Coldwell Banker in its holdings.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 48.4%

5-year Mid CDS: 1124.8

Source: CMA Datavision

12: The PMI Group Inc


What Do They Do: Centered in San Francisco, the PMI Group provides risk analysis and insurance products for the mortgage market.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 48.9%

5-year Mid CDS: 788.9

Source: CMA Datavision

11: Russian Standard Bank

CEO: Dmitry Levin

What Do They Do: The biggest consumer bank in Russia and one of the biggest in the country overall.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 50.6%

5-year Mid CDS: 833.3

Source: CMA Datavision

10: Alpha Bank A.E.

CEO: Demetrios Mantzounis

What Do They Do: The Greek bank specialises in retail lending in Greece, as well as expansionist retail and commercial banking in Southeast Europe.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 50.9%

5-year Mid CDS: 861.5

Source: CMA Datavision

9: Hopson Development Holdings Limited

CEO: Xue Hu

What Do They Do: Chinese property development and investment firm.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 51.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 1119.2

Source: CMA Datavision

8: National Bank of Greece S.A.

CEO: Apostolos Tamvakakis

What Do They Do: Commercial bank with an emphasis on the Mediteranean and Southeast Europe.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 51.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 1104.4

Source: CMA Datavision

7: Country Garden Holdings Company Limited

Chairman: Yang Guoqiang

What Do They Do: Chinese high-end real estate developer.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 58.3%

5-year Mid CDS: 1047.6

Source: CMA Datavision

6: MBIA Inc.

CEO: Jay Brown

What Do They Do: MBIA is a financial holding company, its holdings work in fixed-income markets across the world.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 61.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 1197.2

Source: CMA Datavision

5: Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC

CEO: Ahmad Bin Byat

What Do They Do: Government holding company for the assets of Dubai.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 63.4%

5-year Mid CDS: 1625.5

Source: CMA Datavision

4: iStar Financial Inc

CEO: Jay Sugarman

What Do They Do: A commerical real estate investment trust.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 66.4%

5-year Mid CDS: 1024.4

Source: CMA Datavision

3: Takefuji Corp

President: Akira Kiyokawa

What Do They Do: Subprime consumer finance company, centered in Japan.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 85.1%

5-year Mid CDS: 2895.1

Source: CMA Datavision

2: MBIA Insurance Corporation

CEO: Jay Brown

What Do They Do: The insurance division of MBIA.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 88.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 2938.6

Source: CMA Datavision

1: AMBAC Financial Group Inc.

CEO: David Wallis

What Do They Do: Provider of insurance and swap agreements, largely to American municipalities.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 96.5%

5-year Mid CDS: 8841.4

Source: CMA Datavision

Worried about these financials? Check out the banks that are causing the most systemic risk.

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