Here's Who's Really Desperate For The Eurozone Bailout To Work

fail fall wipe out

Photo: Gustty via Flickr

Banks will be the first to fall if the PIIGS (Greece, Italy, etc.) start defaulting.The renewal of dollar liquidity facilities and assurances from Germany that it will bail out its own banks if Greece defaults may have temporarily bolstered markets, but these announcements also signal that the prognosis for European banks is grim if Greece defaults.

Not to mention what would happen to the banks if Greece decided to renounce the currency altogether.

So which banks will be the first to collapse?

We took a list of the largest European banks by assets and compared their market cap, common equity, and total exposure to PIIGS debt (thank you for the bank statistics, EBA!). Then we calculated exposure to PIIGS debt (sovereign and private) as a percentage of the banks’ common equity.

The worst 20 cutoff for our test ended up being exposure equal to about 175% of common equity, but it really gets out of control once you get to the PIIGS banks (#1-9).

Note that SocGen — which doesn’t quite make the cut here — would be #21.

#20 - Royal Bank of Scotland Group (UK)

PIIGS Exposure: $146.42 billion

Market Cap: $60.96 billion

Common Equity: $83.58 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 175%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#19 - Landesbank Berlin (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure: $13.11 billion

Market Cap: $5.60 billion

Common Equity: $7.31 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 179%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#18 - Barclays (UK)

PIIGS Exposure: $123.51 billion

Market Cap: $43.91 billion

Common Equity: $65.510 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 189%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#17 - Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure: $32.05 billion

Market Cap: $11.27 billion

Common Equity: $13.94 billion

Exposure as % of Common Debt: 230%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Google Finance (market cap)

#16 - DZ Bank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure: $24.69 billion

Common Equity: $10.34 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 239%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Google Finance (market cap)

#15 - KBC Bank (Belgium)

PIIGS Exposure: $39.70 billion

Market Cap: $9.05 billion

Common Equity: $16.09 billion

Exposure as % of Equity: 247%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and NYSE Euronext (market cap)

#14 - Credit Agricole (France)

PIIGS Exposure: $192.06 billion

Market Cap: $29.97 billion

Common Equity: $65.50 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 293%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#13 - Deutsche Bank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure: $140.61 billion

Market Cap: $49.73 billion

Common Equity: $43.02 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 327%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#12 - BNP Paribas (France)

PIIGS Exposure: $280.96 billion

Market Cap: $79.91 billion

Common Equity: $78.43 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 358%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#11 - Commerzbank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure: $67.38 billion

Market Cap: $18.45 billion

Common Equity: $14.60 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 462%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#10 - Dexia (Belgium)

PIIGS Exposure: $132.95 billion

Market Cap: $5.229 billion

Common Equity: $10.34 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 552%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)


#9 - Banco Santander (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure: $567.20 billion

Market Cap: $92.08 billion

Common Equity: $59.51 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 953%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#8 - Unicredit (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure: $541.54 billion

Market Cap: $34.41 billion

Common Equity: $50.59 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,070%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#7 - Bank of Ireland (Ireland)

PIIGS Exposure: $102.43 billion

Market Cap: $1.39 billion

Common Equity: $7.40 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,385%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#6 - BBVA (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure: $552.90 billion

Market Cap: $52.80 billion

Common Equity: $35.39 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,566%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#5 - EFG Eurobank Ergasias (Greece)

PIIGS Exposure: $76.01 billion

Market Cap: $2.07 billion

Common Equity: $4.74 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,601%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#4 - Intesa Sanpaolo Group (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure: $607.03 billion

Market Cap: $51.06 billion

Common Equity: $37.07 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,638%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#3 - Banco Popular Español (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure: $182.94 billion

Market Cap: $6.91 billion

Common Equity: $9.49 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,927%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#2 - Banca MPS (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure: $290.98 billion

Market Cap: $7.96 billion

Common Equity: $6.24 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 4,666%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

#1 - Allied Irish Banks (Ireland)

PIIGS Exposure: $129.02 billion

Market Cap: $2.00 billion

Common Equity: $0.387 billion

Exposure as % of Common Equity: 33,352%

Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)

Which country will go down first?

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